Commodities Focus: Higher for longer - redistributing the heat in agri prices over the medium term

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Tracey Allen to discuss the fundamental and price outlook for agricultural markets through 2022-23. The precarious situation of historically high food prices and risks of physical shortages of cereals and vegetable oils over the years ahead presents an immensely challenging outlook for agricultural supply chains and risk management. Historical episodes of food price inflation have typically been driven by supply side shocks, often from adverse weather. For agri markets, this time is different, and far more complex and likely longer to overcome-despite the aggressive selloff across markets through late May. Agri prices are expected to remain elevated through 2023 and likely beyond. Though, stymied investor risk appetite amid discussions of a humanitarian export corridor for Ukrainian food exports, downside global growth risks and hand to mouth consumer buying, has driven a downward revision in our price forecasts through 2022. This podcast was recorded on June 3 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4110968-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.