Global Commodities: Higher, with a little help from China

Speakers:    Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Parsley Ong, Head of Asia Energy & Chemicals   We continue to project Brent oil reaching high $80s by May, with our constructive outlook relying heavily on our optimistic view on demand, especially China. Despite tepid economic growth momentum, Chinese oil consumption hit an all-time high of 16.03 mbd last year, delivering a 1.2 mbd growth vs 0.8 mbd expected at the start of 2023. The supporting factors that boosted oil demand growth in 2023 are fading, but there are few signs that China’s oil demand is slowing. We project the world’s top crude importer to consume an additional 530 kbd of oil in 2024, accounting for a third of the 1.5 mbd growth in global oil demand and its single largest source. Our constructive outlook on demand requires an increased call on refining output however China’s dominance in global refining activity growth will likely ease in 2024.   This podcast was recorded on Feb. 2, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4614178-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.