Global Commodities: What is a balanced market worth?

As we put a bow on 2023, our view remains that oil demand growth will slow from a very strong 1.8 mbd in 2023 to a still strong 1.5 mbd in 2024, underpinned by a moderating but still resilient global economic expansion and remaining pent-up oil demand. On the supply side, producers outside of the OPEC+ alliance again should drive overall growth in supply—projected at 1.6 mbd—matching growth in demand. All of this means a largely balanced market, with Brent prices averaging $83 for the year. The biggest pushback against our view has not been the balanced supply-demand outlook, but whether a balanced market is indeed worth $80.   Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on January 19, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4602932-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.