Global Commodities: When the Fed pauses, oil rallies

Our economists continue to look for a 25bp hike in May, followed by an extensive pause. Any pause by the Fed could mark a turn in what has been one of the most aggressive hiking cycles in decades. With oil market micro fundamentals turning positive, a shift in US monetary policy could be an important signal for the oil markets. Looking at Brent oil returns during 3, 6, 12, and up to 30 months after the Fed ends its hiking cycle, buying the last hike has proven to be the correct strategy historically.   SpeakersNatasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on 14 April 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4381809-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.