Bakes' Takes Podcast 2/27/21--1) GME-elastic cat 2) Allergic to red 3) Being right vs. making money

Bakes’ Takes Podcast Show Notes Saturday   February 27, 2021   :30 1) GME-elastic cat 2) Allergic to red                  3) Being right vs. making money   :46 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in.   ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron’s Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don’t want to do that, please know that I’ll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts.   2:07 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence.   2:12 Bakes’ Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike!   2:18 Bobby’s text--what’s going on with GME?   2:43 "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height" $22 launch pad to $483 to $40 qualifies, $35-$43 floor, bounce $65-$77 ceiling IMO?   3:23 Broke through $77. Gap at $212. Still staying away. Are you red?   4:53 Lot of kerosene mopped up   5:52 Bakes’ Take—Become allergic to red. The goal is to make money vs. being right. Thank you Ned Davis.   6:35 Murph—voice memo--Ethereum vs. Bitcoin.   7:12 My bias—chart first, prefer this, above 50 dma consistently, +183%, pure profit, the crypto companies putting on balance sheets, great question for Michael Saylor, small % of overall assets, need two?   8:53 19% of bitcoin market cap, distant #2, smart contracts? Both volume up on down days, watching, Yellen statement   10:29 Bakes’ Take—Given crypto small % of assets, chart, prefer bitcoin   10:45 Murph—voice memo—SOXX   11:34 IShares Phlx Sox Semi/SOXX—only neg is volume pick up on down days, could change, but not buy for me yet, shortage turn to glut, sector’s history, why I go chart first   12:33 NVDA—everyone’s darling, can’t earn enough to keep them happy   13:01 Bakes’ Take—Expectations likely too high for semi’s   13:20 Murph—voice memo—Ishares S&P Global Clean Energy/ICLN   14:10 IShares S&P Global Clean Energy/ICLN--$24.20 support, 23 mil gap up volume, 16 mil down day but close at high, looks ok long term   16:03 Bakes’ Take—Decent entry point for ICLN   16:11 Murph text—DBA vs. TAGS, recession play? No, Inverse to rest of market, yes, fact sheet   17:35 DBA--Broader—cotton, cattle, hogs, etc.   18:09 TAGS—prefer, China rebuild hog herd, more exposure, smaller, less liquid, good for individual investor       19:06   19:41 Bakes’ Take—Recession not risk, inflation is, like TAGS   20:18 TBF—Bonds suck, only question is how negative, it’s not a positive   21:22 Bakes’ Take—Bonds reversing years of appreciation   21:50 Bobby—chart   22:40 You are here, why bonds matter   23:09 Bakes’ Take—Valuations poor, can’t handle rates up much more, watch 200 dma’s   23:40 James VanDeventer Hey Bakes, i liked the show from the weekend, specifically your comment about Bitcoin showing up on corporate treasury balance sheets, makes me think there’s still a clear supply and demand imbalance - for the time being at least. I’m curious what you think about emerging markets (EEM specifically) making new multiyear highs right now. With a theoretically weaker US dollar does that add fuel to the fire? What do you make of yesterday’s (Monday 2/23) open and reversal? I’ve never seen anything like that, some of those AM prices in growth seemed ridiculous. Good stuff as always! -James   24:20 James, thank you. I will cover on the show as well but for now EEM uptrend appears intact. Not a fresh money buy for me but looks good if you hold it. Reversal if you mean overall market or Nasdaq, thank the 50 dma and Powell. He thinks no inflation above 2% for 3 years. He is looking at different charts than I am. As you know, I in essence shorted 20+ yr Treasuries via TBF. Fed can influence the short end, the long end much less. Please subscribe, share, like and review. Thx. Bakes   26:18 Bakes’ Take—Macro tough to do, no EEM for me   EEM—break down through 50 dma, 66% down volume   27:16 Please share this