Geopolitics and beyond - What's powering oil and gold?

As we move into Q4 2024, gold prices continue their remarkable climb, while oil faces a more uncertain future amid heightened geopolitical tensions. What’s fueling these divergent trends in two of the world’s most important commodities, and where could they be headed next?Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they offer expert analysis and insights on the key factors shaping the markets for gold and oil.00:19 Introduction00:41 Our gold and oil forecast01:55 Are geopolitics flare ups driving up gold prices?2:52 Asia and Western demand3:46 The impact of central bank gold holdings5:04 Why has gold continued to rise despite China’s pause in gold purchases6:02 Speculative gold positioning7:18 Significant redemptions in Western ETFs8:15 Where can gold go in a rate easing cycle?9:25 Recession risks10:20 Geopolitical noise impacting oil11:00 Escalating conflict – where can oil go?12:42 China’s stimulus – is there upside for oil?14:01 The supply and demand picture