Weekend Rundown - October 10, 2021

Happy Sunday! A few days ago, I saw a social media poll that asked whether people think bitcoin’s most recent upswing from $40k to $55k is a bull run, bull trap, or too early to tell. 63% picked either bull trap or too early to tell. Either we have a lot of people in disbelief that bitcoin’s price can go up from here or the poll’s respondents were excessively bearish. At this point, for reasons I’ve shared for several weeks, you’re going to really have to strain to make the bear case. I talked about this in more detail in my update from October 6, 2021. Get the Update It was already a stretch to say bitcoin went into a bear market earlier this year. That case was purely semantic—it was based on your personal definition of “bear market.” We didn’t see the types of price patterns, trading behaviors, or on-chain data we saw during any previous bear market. At the same time, that didn’t mean we had to stay in a bull market. Since bitcoin’s price bottomed on June 22, 2021, it’s gone up for the past 110 days. It went down for only 69 days after April’s peak. If going down for 69 days triggers a bear market, does going up for 110 days trigger a bull market? We shall see. As of today, any price down to $29,000 or up to $120,000 would seem normal, though I’d certainly start to worry should the price go near either of those extremes in the coming weeks. I still expect we will get a result similar to what we’ve seen in the past when bitcoin has shown similar on-chain behaviors and price movements. In that case, bitcoin's price will reach a new all-time high in November, perhaps late October or early December. It’s about a two-month swing if history repeats itself. Premium subscribers, I’ll keep you posted on that, altseason, and whatever else I see as we move forward. Read below for some news and notes that you may enjoy. Alessio Rastani video: https://youtu.be/gI6iP2nc6sI Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? DAN Teaches Crypto Relax and enjoy the ride!