DHUnplugged #615: Breaking Worse

Good news! Powell and Clarida cleared of any wrongdoing. That was a close one! Markets starting to rethink the doom and gloom? Earnings season colliding with rate hike worries. Mystery Chart - impressive run. Uber - terrible - not going to change their ways. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Earnings season begins this week - Mystery Chart - It is UP this year! - President Biden - No Headway during Saudi Trip - Saying goodbye to Ivana Trump - Heat Waves - How is your weather? Market Update - Reversal Alert - 0.75% < 1.00% new base and markets get excited --- If you think its a rally but it's not - It's Chiffon? (Commercial from the 70's) ---- Its not nice to fool mother nature - Bank Earnings - mixed bag. Hard to interpret due to loan loss provisions - Short Squeeze / rebalance ahead of earnings - UBER - disgusting practices - China is easing some rules - money available - How much more badder does the news have to get? - Yield Curve very inverted..... 2 year higher than 30 year... - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey revealed the lowest equity allocation since the Lehman Bros. bankruptcy and the highest cash levels since 2001. Announcing a new Closest to the Pin! Starting with Peak Pessimism - Investors slashed their exposure to risk assets to levels not seen even during the global financial crisis in a sign of full capitulation amid a “dire” economic outlook, according to Bank of America Corp.’s monthly fund manager survey. - A net 58% of fund managers said they’re taking lower than normal risks, a record that surpassed the survey’s global financial crisis levels. - Global growth and profit expectations sank to an all-time low, while recession expectations were at their highest since the pandemic-fueled slowdown in May 2020 - C A P I T U L A T I O N  -- - They are saying... Oil (2) - Oil prices near $96 $94    $99 - Bounced off support and USD weakens Coinage - Big weekend for coins - Bitcoin. ETH and others moving, 10, 20+% --- Story over weekend that Coinbase shutting down affiliate programs ---- Wild speculation that COIN could be next to be under financial pressure ----- Short Squeeze getting out of positions - why the weekend rally? Bank Earnings - No use in trying to look at headline beats/misses - Loan loss provisions down big then up big - over 1 year means that comparisons all screwed up - Generally major banks looking pretty good still - NIM good and revenues looking healthy - Concerns over economic slowdown and bad debt - co - Could be they overshot to downside - Goldman, Morgan look good - not much bad to say right now. Builder Confidence - Another story all together - We know from Redfin - prices coming down, existing homes flooding markets, sells getting worried - July NAHB Housing Market Index 55vs. 66 Briefing.com consensus; prior 67 - Builders confidence - see below - needs some discussion NAHB Mystery Chart - This stock is up this year - Well known, in DJIA - TECH! - Laggard for years... - Earnings out last night - stock not doing so good Mystery Chart More Stocks... - Single Stock ETF - Interesting concept - but not clear who this benefits. - Fees added to stocks that can be bought at low cost - Probably less volume and liquidity than the stock itself Netflix - After several quarters of horrible performance (company and stock) company about to report July 19 - Could there be a gold mine in the advertising side? - Teamed up with Microsoft - SIDEBAR: Heard someone talking about team ups/projects with MSFT - WHY? Because they are neutral and can be trusted as partner when building. (When did that happen?)