DHUnplugged #694: Lots of China

Volatility is back and Bitcoin mania is here again. Need a new CTP Stock! China stocks on a run... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Volatility is back - Bitcoin mania - Need a new CTP Stock! - LSD - making an interesting comeback Market Update - NVDA had 2 down days! - Markets still want to go higher - not matter what the data - Yields move up with CPI - Big rebound for NVDA - not letting it go down too much... CPI Release - Total CPI increased by 0.4% month-over-month, meeting expectations, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose by 0.4% month-over-month (0.3%). - On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.2%, compared to 3.1% in January, and core CPI increased by 3.8%, versus 3.9% in January. - Excluding shelter, CPI rose by a more modest 1.8% year-over-year. - Despite the headline disappointment for core CPI, the market seems optimistic about the future, anticipating a reduction in the isolated impact of the shelter index in the coming months due to an expected moderation in rent prices. (in other words, thinking the Fed's PCE will not be so hot next time and the Fed will still cut sometime this year) CPI Report key takeaways: - The food index showed no change month-over-month and increased by 2.2% year-over-year. - The energy index rose by 2.3% month-over-month and declined by 1.9% year-over-year. - Used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month and a 1.8% decrease year-over-year. - The apparel index was up 0.6% month-over-month and unchanged year-over-year. - The all items index, excluding food, shelter, and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year. Inflation - YoY Inflation - ACTUAL Layoffs - Does not fit the narrative - Layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since the global financial crisis, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. - The total of 84,638 planned cuts showed an increase of 3% from January and 9% from the same month a year ago, with technology and finance companies at the forefront. - From a historical perspective, this was the worst February since 2009, which saw 186,350 announcements as the worst of the financial crisis was seemingly coming to an end. - Here is where it gets interesting: The layoff numbers, however, are not feeding through to weekly jobless claims, suggesting that unemployment is short-lived and workers are able to find new positions. Powell - On one hand he stated that the Fed is watching and not ready yet to cut rates - data dependent - A couple days later he indicated that interest rate cuts may not be too far off if inflation signals cooperate. - In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the central bank leader didn't provide a precise timetable of when he sees easing happening, but noted that the day could be coming soon. Mnuchin to the Rescue? -NYCB had bad month - and got worse - Lost 7% of deposits - Bond rating cut - Investment firm lead by Steve Mnuchin swooped in with a cool $1 billion rescue package - Remember NYCD bought Signature Bank - obviously so much crap in that portfolio it helped poison NYCB Oracle Earnings - New ATH - Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $1.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.38; revenues rose 7.1% year/year to $13.28 bln vs the $13.29 bln FactSet Consensus. - Q3 Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to $80 billion. - Q3 Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $5.1 billion, up 25% in USD, up 24% in constant currency. - Q3 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue $1.8 billion, up 49% in both USD and constant currency.