Bonus: How 600+ DTC Brands Are Navigating Q4 Uncertainty and Margin Pressure – Insights with Keen's Justin Jefferson

Subscribe to DTC Newsletter - https://dtcnews.link/signupIn this episode of the DTC Podcast, we dive into the results of a survey of over 600 DTC brand operators, conducted in partnership with Keen Decision Systems. With Q4 2025 shaped by shifting tariffs, tight margins, and uncertain demand, we speak with Justin Jefferson, VP of Strategy & Insights at Keen, to unpack how brands are (and aren’t) preparing for what’s ahead.You can access the full Q4 Planning & Profitability Report here: https://www.directtoconsumer.co/newsletter/inside-q4-what-dtc-operators-are-seeing-saying-and-planningIf you’re interested in the latest trends in marketing spend and performance, explore Keen’s insights dashboard. It’s continuously updated with timely, actionable data to help you stay ahead.Justin shares real-world insights into how leading DTC brands are making smarter decisions through scenario planning, forecasting, and more disciplined budget allocation—while calling out the traps many fall into, from knee-jerk cuts to overreliance on ROAS.Why less than 7% of brands are confident in their Q4 forecasts—and how to fix itThe danger of reactive planning and the real meaning of agilityHow scenario modeling helps brands balance margin defense with long-term growthWhy ROAS is outdated, and the move toward marginal ROI and long-term profitability modelingWhat large brands do differently: disciplined investment, top-of-funnel steadiness, and planning across multiple economic conditionsHow to rethink testing budgets and ensure you’re not starting Q1 blindThis episode is for any brand operator looking to survive—and strategically grow—through an unpredictable Q4.Timestamps:00:00 Understanding Q4 Uncertainty in 202502:58 Why Contingency Planning Matters05:55 Top vs Bottom Funnel Spending Strategy08:13 Preparing for Margin Pressure and Tariffs11:45 How Mature Brands Avoid Going Dark14:20 The Problem with Relying on ROAS17:22 What to Know Before Scaling Experimental Budgets20:06 Underrated Ad Channels That Work22:58 Real Case Study: Avoiding Costly Inventory Mistakes26:30 Final Tips for Smarter Weekly SpendHashtags:#dtcpodcast#q4planning#ecommercemarketing#digitalmarketing#keendecisioning#roas#marketingstrategy#tariffs#marketingbudget#d2cpodcast#customeracquisition#topfunnel#brandstrategy#marketinginsightsSubscribe to DTC Newsletter - https://dtcnews.link/signupAdvertise on DTC - https://dtcnews.link/advertiseWork with Pilothouse - https://dtcnews.link/pilothouseFollow us on Instagram & Twitter - @dtcnewsletterWatch this interview on YouTube - https://dtcnews.link/video