Litigation Risk Modeling for Finance Professionals with David Perla

In this episode of Financial Modeler’s Corner, host Paul Barnhurst (aka The FP&A Guy) welcomes David Perla, Vice Chair of Burford Capital and a pioneering voice in the legal finance industry. David discusses how financial modeling plays a central role in evaluating and funding high-stakes litigation, offering a behind-the-scenes look at how his team monetizes legal risk with structured financial strategies. From managing long litigation timelines to leveraging Monte Carlo simulations and AI tools, David shares how Burford builds sophisticated models to guide investment decisions and mitigate risk. David Perla has an extraordinary background at the intersection of law, entrepreneurship, and finance. He’s a former president of Bloomberg Law, co-founder of legal outsourcing pioneer Pangea3 (acquired by Thomson Reuters), and was named a top 50 innovator by The American Lawyer. At Burford Capital, David is helping reshape how the legal world accesses and deploys capital.Expect to Learn:What legal finance actually is and how it worksHow Burford structures deals and evaluates legal riskThe modeling techniques used to forecast legal outcomesWhy Monte Carlo simulations are central to their underwriting processHow AI is used (and misused) in legal financeHere are a few quotes from the episode:“Behavior that’s irrational but predictable? We can model that. Idiosyncratic behavior? We avoid it.” - David PerlaModeling helps us decide not only how to price a deal, but how to structure incentives.” - David PerlaEverything we do depends on modeling.” - David PerlaDavid Perla gave us a fascinating look into the world of legal finance and how modeling plays a critical role in managing complex litigation risk. His knowledge revealed how finance principles, AI tools, and human judgment all intersect in this unique investment space. From non-recourse funding to Monte Carlo simulations, this episode showcased the depth of modeling required in high-stakes legal decision-making.Follow Dave:LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidperla/Website - https://www.burfordcapital.com/Follow Paul: Website - https://www.thefpandaguy.com   LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/thefpandaguy  YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@thefpaguy8376  Follow Financial Modeler's Corner  LinkedIn Page- https://www.linkedin.com/company/financial-modeler-s-corner/?viewAsMember=true  Newsletter - Subscribe on LinkedIn-https://www.linkedin.com/build-relation/newsletter-follow?entityUrn=7079020077076905984Sign up for the Advanced Financial Modeler Accreditation Today and receive 15% off by using the special show code ‘Podcast’. Visit