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The risk of a meaningful tightening in credit conditions raises the odds of a US recession and potentially a global one as well. However, it is unclear whether the fallout from recent events is a newly-added headwind or a consequence of central banks’ intended slowdown. For now, growth and inflation are running hotter than expected even if the credit shock is also larger than expected. Consequently, forecasts remain unchanged even if tail risks have fattened. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.