Episode 1083: Think Tank: Huge pressure to close petrochemical plants as global overcapacity grows
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As waves of new capacity come onstream in China and the Middle East, stagnant demand growth and falling margins are increasing pressure on chemical companies to permanently close older facilities. - Wave of oil-to-chemicals projects will flood market - Global operating rates forecast at 80% to 2030, from 88% long term average- Huge pressure on non-integrated/high-cost facilities to close- More plant closures could be driven by high costs, low demand, decarbonization - High closure costs include environmental cleanup, redundancy payments- Upstream integration to refineries prevents closures- Chemical industry could reinvent itself as service provider - Q3 Europe margins low or negative- Q4 cracker margins improve as oil prices fall - No sign of improvement in downstream demand