Micro to Macro Podcast

Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our July 13th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report. If you are a recent subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] we learned from the first week of 2Q earnings seasonDespite it being early in 2Q19 earnings season, we have seen evidence supporting three of our secular and one our key cyclical macroeconomic trends.  The secular themes are bank deregulation, a software investment boom and disruption of the disrupters.  Our cyclical theme that the stock market has correct, but bond market and central bank have wrong, is the developing recovery in US manufacturing as the inventory destocking process runs its course.  Meanwhile Bob Gordon disciples were grabbing headlines claiming it is different this time, productivity is not recovering and the US Treasury curve will join Europe and Japan into negative rates and a liquidity trap.  Before we get to a discussion on the ‘natural rate’ of interest that central bankers have renamed r*, earnings season is providing plenty of micro data points consistent with our macro views. Barry C. KnappManaging PartnerIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics.  You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters.  This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so.  This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only.  This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice.  Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance.  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice.  Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2019 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe