Kontrarian Korner #34 - The Crude Chronicles

Today I’m excited to publish the first part of a podcast series on oil that I will be doing over the next couple weeks. Rob Connors, the author of The Crude Chronicles, joined me for part 1 to give us a historical look at where we are in the cycle today. He also provided a detailed slide deck that we went through, which I included below. If you want to follow him on Twitter, he also shares some of his interesting charts there.Podcast Summary* Why he thinks energy could be one of the best (if not the best) performing sector of the S&P 500 over the next decade, and could return 9-10% AFTER inflation.* The two main drivers for commodities cycles: liquidity or excessive money creation, and declining well productivity.* The six stages of the oil cycle, and why we are in stage 3 now.* How the incentive structures have changed for E&P management and what that means moving forward. * His thoughts on the political changes and why “Drill, baby, drill” won’t have a huge impact.* Why he thinks the floor for oil is somewhere in the low-60s.* Oil bull markets typically have three waves, and why offshore oilfield services typically perform best in the third wave.* His thoughts on the narrative around OPEC spare capacity, and why he is more focused on non-OPEC supply.* Book Recommendations: Can’t Deny It by Doug Terreson, The Prize by Daniel Yergin, and The Quest For Value by Bennett Stewart.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe