#109 Prior Sensitivity Analysis, Overfitting & Model Selection, with Sonja Winter

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!My Intuitive Bayes Online Courses1:1 Mentorship with meOur theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)TakeawaysBayesian methods align better with researchers' intuitive understanding of research questions and provide more tools to evaluate and understand models.Prior sensitivity analysis is crucial for understanding the robustness of findings to changes in priors and helps in contextualizing research findings.Bayesian methods offer an elegant and efficient way to handle missing data in longitudinal studies, providing more flexibility and information for researchers.Fit indices in Bayesian model selection are effective in detecting underfitting but may struggle to detect overfitting, highlighting the need for caution in model complexity.Bayesian methods have the potential to revolutionize educational research by addressing the challenges of small samples, complex nesting structures, and longitudinal data. Posterior predictive checks are valuable for model evaluation and selection.Chapters00:00 The Power and Importance of Priors09:29 Updating Beliefs and Choosing Reasonable Priors16:08 Assessing Robustness with Prior Sensitivity Analysis34:53 Aligning Bayesian Methods with Researchers' Thinking37:10 Detecting Overfitting in SEM43:48 Evaluating Model Fit with Posterior Predictive Checks47:44 Teaching Bayesian Methods 54:07 Future Developments in Bayesian StatisticsThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi...