Episode 12 – Super forecasters! You can’t predict, but you CAN prepare.

If you want to be a successful investor, then naturally you need to take a position on future events. Yet making predictions is difficult, especially when they are about the future! Some of the points we cover in this episode include: -The history of some very wrong predictions -The problem with ‘expert predictions’ on the economy and markets -Prediction biases: recency bias and priming -How can you be a better predictor? -Can the crowd ever be wise? -The Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville Books mentioned: The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki Superforecasting: The Art of Science of Prediction, Philip Tetlock Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman The Base Rate Book: Integrating the Past to Better Anticipate the Future, Michael Mauboussin The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Superinvestors or Graham and Doddsville, Warren Buffett, Hermes Magazine, Columbia Business School Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/book Pete Wargent https://www.petewargent.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty https://twitter.com/SGM63