Macro Strategy Views Podcast: why Scandinavia is not the Eurozone

In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the similarities and differences between the Scandinavian countries and the eurozone in terms of the outlook for interest rates. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by our Chief Economist in Denmark Las Olsen, our DKK strategist Jens Nærvig Pedersen and our Scandi strategist Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt. Demographics, higher inflation and better trend growth suggest that Norwegian rates will be above eurozone rates. The Riksbank will be constrained by the ECB, in contrast with Norges Bank. However, favourable demographics, higher trend growth and falling savings imply that Swedish rates should be slightly higher than eurozone rates. The sharp increase in Danish pension savings is set to continue depressing Danish interest rates.