Payden's Cleveland: Recession's not coming soon, and rates have peaked

Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, says that inflation could begin dropping next year while unemployment remains low, conditions which run counter to the traditional recessionary playbook. He says that the reasons for inflation over the last few years could be unique to the Covid era -- fiscal stimulus, unusual supply chains, a shift in how people spend money moving from services to goods, war in Ukraine and more -- which could set up "a great scenario" and a potential soft landing. He sees the economy side-stepping recession until late next year or 2024, and sees strong potential investment opportunities in the interim. Also on the show, David Ellison, portfolio manager covering the financial services sector for the Hennessy Funds, says that Wall Street is in recession but the rest of the economy isn't, and while Wall Street wants that kind of pain -- because a recession is good for Wall Street -- he doesn't see that kind of downturn materializing right now, agreeing with Cleveland that low unemployment and other conditions make the current downturn very different than the great financial crisis of 2008. Plus, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com returns with the site's look at retail store charge cards, which now have an average interest rate nearing 30 percent, a new record.