Vanguard's Aliaga-Diaz: Fed won't hit its inflation target til 2024 or '25

Roger Aliaga-Diaz, Americas chief economist and head of global portfolio construction at The Vanguard Group, says that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be reluctant to stop interest-rate hikes in 2023, and while they will get inflation under control it will be a slow process to get it down to the 2 percent level they are hoping for until at least 2024 and possibly 2025. As a result, any economic recovery is likely to be lackluster, featuring more choppiness and sideways movements than significant, fast rebounds. Alliaga-Diaz says the stock market looks better now than a year ago -- when it was trading at up to 40 percent over fair value -- but that it is positioned to deliver between 6 and 10 percent annualized over the next decade, which means returns going forward will struggle to reach historic norms. In the Market Call, Rob Spivey, director of research at Valens Securities, says he expects a 'supply chain super cycle' to help sustain or even spur economic growth as consumer spending slows in the face of inflation, which should support the economy as it goes through a transition, but he notes that those conditions should make stock investors particularly picky about what they are buying now. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about tax-loss harvesting.