Douglas Tengdin – The Government Can Take Anything Away

Douglas Tengdin, CFA, is the chief investment officer (CIO) of Charter Trust Company, where he has worked since 2000. He graduated magna cum laude from Dartmouth College in 1982, and received his CFA Charter in 1992. He was the founding president of CFA Society Vermont and remains an active volunteer with the CFA Institute. His first job in the investment industry was as a mail boy and securities runner in 1974. He has also worked as a bond trader, currency trader, mutual fund portfolio manager, bank treasury analyst and manager, and private wealth portfolio manager before becoming a CIO. He began to produce a monthly market commentary in 1993, and started blogging in 2007. His daily blog is called the Global Market Update and he produces a one-minute podcast and radio spot that accompanies it. He has been married for 35 years, has six children whom he and his wife have homeschooled, and is active in church and outdoor activities. He currently lives in Hanover, New Hampshire, with his wife, their youngest son (about to enter college), and his mother-in-law.   “The government can take anything away. They’re not predictable. You may think you have a way of predict them but they’re not.” Douglas Tengdin   Support our sponsor   Today’s episode is sponsored by the Women Building Wealth membership group, the complete proven step-by-step course to guide women from novice to competent investor. To learn more, visit: WomenBuildingWealth.net.     Worst investment ever Douglas says his story was not as much a terrible investment as it was memorable. It was 1988 and he was in his late 20s and a bond trader for a mid-sized US bank. He sat on a desk with other bond traders, and bought and sold United States Treasury securities during trading day hoping to speculate on price movements, which are relatively random on any particular day. He had built a lot of financial models, without all the great software we have today, just Lotus 123 spreadsheets, but he had created a lot of them, and they have macros built into them and macros that built other macros, and they were continually processing the price activity, looking for clues. Built models used to help his bank trade in treasuries He had had considerable success with these models and had been hired to help manage the bank’s Treasury department. He was then invited to do the same thing for the traders and so he started doing that and making predictions. Then his leaders suggested he put a “paper portfolio” together to see what he could do, so he used his models and put the paper portfolio to work, with some success. Bank puts him trading real funds and he makes early wins Then they put him to work trading live funds (real money). He was invested in two- and five-year treasuries. He would buy and sell those securities, going short or going long, but he would always be ahead by trading day’s end. Suddenly, Greenspan’s Fed raises discount rate He remembers the day well. It was August 1988. The market had recovered from the 1987...