Sahm Rule Triggered, Are We In A Recession? | Claudia Sahm

In this episode, Claudia Sahm joins the show to discuss her namesake recession indicator the Sahm Rule. We deep dive into unemployment, whether or not we are in a recession, and how the Federal Reserve should be reacting. Enjoy! -- Follow guest: https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:13) What is the Sahm Rule? (06:29) Sahm Rule Triggered (08:37) Purpose of the Sahm Rule (10:20) Are We in a Recession? (14:05) Mantra Ad (15:18) Unemployment Dynamics of the Sahm Rule (18:16) Unemployment Dynamics of a Recession (21:22) Sahm Rule 2.0 (22:56) Blame the Fed, Not the Sahm Rule (24:35) July Unemployment Report (32:10) Permissionless Ad (32:49) How the Fed Looks at the Labor Market (38:14) Should the Fed be Cutting Rates? (40:38) Are We Heading for a Hard Landing? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.