Tony Greer: Fed’s Policies Will Spur a Commodities Boom

Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Tony Greer. Tony comes highly recommended by the 'Chicken with a Terminal' - Doomberg. He details his background on Wall Street and experience with both commodities and writing a morning newsletter. Tony explains his two daily reminders which help maintain his focus on the markets. Assets are key and the Fed will continue to print. This is why the stock markets continue to rise. The talk of a taper continues while the Fed's balance sheet keeps ballooning. We have massively diluted the dollar over the past couple of years and therefore inflation is destined to continue. Tony says he "hates losing money" and that helps him focus on the charts. Staying with what is working is key for him and finding the early-stage opportunities. Patience is key along with sticking to your strategy. The tech sector is taking a massive percentage of the equities markets when compared with energy or resources. The ESG theme is choking oil supplies by squelching investment and canceling projects. He's looking for two hundred dollar crude prices in the future. Our position on energy has deteriorated under Biden and we are once again highly reliant on foreign oil and OPEC. He expects the commodity and resource space to do well during the inflation period we are entering. The world needs battery metals and other base metals to reach electrification goals. We're seeing a rotation out of everything tech and into other sectors including commodities. He discusses gold and the risks that come with it. It's highly correlated to the dollar and often has early morning raids. For Tony, there are often way better trades. The bullish case for crypto is being demonstrated right now with Trudeau's actions. Crypto may have a hard time rallying when commodities are moving. However, cryptos don't have to be performing to be important in the world's economy. Lastly, he says, "Make sure you're adjusting your portfolio to deal with inflation." Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:10 - The Morning Navigator5:12 - Post It Reminders9:12 - Staying Nimble14:42 - Risk & Leverage17:55 - Inflation & Oil24:54 - Europe Lessons27:34 - US Energy Policy30:13 - Equity Rotation35:28 - Bearish Signposts38:40 - VIX Thoughts44:20 - Gold Factors47:55 - Gold & Inflation50:20 - Crypto Markets54:48 - Concluding Advice56:40 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode * The two factors he bases his daily trades upon.* ESG impacts on the energy markets and the risks of further inflation.* Tech sector decline and the rotation into commodities and resources.* Thoughts on crypto performance in a commodity rally. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgmacroWebsite: https://tgmacro.com/E-Mail: [email protected] After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony Greer followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years." We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets. He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992. In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader,