The Wire - February 17, 2024

//The Wire//1600Z February 17, 2024////ROUTINE////BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN THE RED SEA. NAVALNY DEATH INCREASES INTL TENSIONS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Russia: Much consternation abounds concerning the death of Putin critic Alexei Navalny. Pro-Russian sources are quick to point out that Navalny was prosecuted for orchestrating dissent in Russia at the behest of the West (that would be carried out via Navalny’s NGO, which undeniably has strong ties to MI6). Conversely, Western sources cite the obvious fact that, following the assassination of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in August of last year, Putin critics seem to be meeting very untimely ends as of late. AC: Though the impacts of Navalny’s death will not really impact the citizens of the United States or Europe, the rhetoric from mainstream sources, clearly planned and orchestrated since Navalny was imprisoned, has been overwhelming. Following the fallout that the impact Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin has had, it is certain that Navalny’s death will be as his life was: manipulated by the west for cheap political gain. Putin meanwhile, will likely continue consolidating power as he sees fit in order to continue streamlining Russia’s economic, military, and social standing with Asia, the Middle East, and the rest of the world at large.Red Sea/HOA: This morning, Houthi forces conducted a cruise missile attack against the M/V POLLUX a Panamanian-flagged tanker. CENTCOM reports 3-4 cruise missiles were used to target the vessel.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Continuing the trend, CENTCOM has used increasingly vague language to describe Houthi attacks. Unlike in previous reports, CENTCOM did not state whether or not the POLLUX had been struck, or if the missiles missed their target. CENTCOM only reported that there were no injuries…which is an evasive, non-committal statement that conveniently does not deny that the vessel was hit since most successful strikes do not result in the crew being injured anyway. Meanwhile, cross-referencing CENTCOM’s press releases with UKMTO indicates that only one vessel was targeted in the region within the time period of the CENTCOM report, a vessel that did report being attacked by a missile resulting in “an explosion in close proximity”. Though it is not clear as to if this is indeed the same vessel, this does highlight the potentially diverting and increasingly vague reporting in the region.Also of note, CENTCOM’s press releases have quietly dropped all references to successful interceptions of Houthi missiles over the past few days. No mention has been made of any successful interceptions for about a week, whereas the announcement of “self-defense strikes” has been a constant. Though this is purely speculative, this could signal a shift in tactics as U.S. Naval forces are unable to provide complete missile defense for themselves or commercial shipping; shifting from defense to offense could be a perceived way to counter Houthi threats. A static target is a lot easier to hit than a cruise missile, so the U.S. may be prioritizing the strike of missiles before they are launched, and relying on Aegis missile defense as the backup plan. The data, however, speaks for itself. Houthi forces regularly successfully target commercial shipping nearly daily.Analyst: S2A1//END REPORT//