The Wire - February 20, 2024

//The Wire//1930Z February 20, 2024////ROUTINE////BLUF: HOUTHI FORCES INTENSIFY ATTACKS, SHOOT DOWN AMERICAN DRONE.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Red Sea/HOA: Significant escalations in the region have taken place following the successful attack on the M/V RUBYMAR with many commercial vessels being targeted by a variety of Houthi weapons systems. The following is a summary of the vessels targeted yesterday: M/V SEA CHAMPION – Struck with one Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM). Minor damage reported.M/V NAVIS FORTUNA – Struck with kamikaze drone. Minor damage reported.USS LABOON (DDG 58) – Attacked with ASCM, which was successfully intercepted. No damage reported.Additionally, CENTCOM reports various un-named coalition vessels engaging a total of 10 kamikaze drones in the region overnight.Last night, Houthi forces reported successfully shooting down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone off the coast of Yemen. Though CENTCOM has not officially confirmed the shootdown, local Yemenis have posted photos of the debris on various social media platforms. AC: This morning, CENTCOM did make a reference to destroying a SAM site for the first time in this conflict. However, this conveniently leaves out the reasoning behind locating the SAM site likely being the result of an MQ-9 being shot down.-Homefront-NY: A large nationwide trucking protest has begun to become more organized. Various independent truckers are organizing to boycott deliveries to New York following the perceived injustice of the outcome of Donald Trump’s civil trial. AC: This protest officially started yesterday, but due to the media blackout of this demonstration it has taken time for many truckers to hear about it. The specific goals of this protest are to deliberately cause shortages of resources and increase prices for New Yorkers.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Few details remain regarding the status of the M/V RUBYMAR, the vessel that was reportedly sunk Sunday night, and thus leading to the current escalation of the conflict in the Gulf of Aden. Though the crew reported both taking on water and uncontrolled fires before abandoning ship, it is unclear as to if the vessel has finished sinking or if salvage operations will attempt to be conducted. As the crew has abandoned ship, for simplicity the M/V RUBYMAR will be referred to as ‘sunk’ until more information becomes available.Regarding the probable shootdown of an American drone off the coast of Yemen, this could temporarily increase concerns for commercial aviation throughout the region in addition to the merchant shipping woes. This is the second recent shootdown of an American drone in the region, with Houthi forces shooting down another American MQ-9 back in November of last year. As the MQ-9 platform is a high-flying asset, the weapons system used to target this drone would also certainly be capable of targeting commercial aviation. This is further reinforced by CENTCOM’s announcement of striking a SAM site. It is almost certain that the asset used to target the drone was an SA-6 GAINFUL surface-to-air missile system, the same asset used to down the first MQ-9 in November.Analyst: S2A1//END REPORT//