The Wire - March 20, 2024

//The Wire//2030Z March 20, 2024////ROUTINE////BLUF: FRANCE THREATENS DEPLOYMENT OF TROOPS IN UKRAINE. CLINTON AIRPORT DIRECTOR SHOT IN ATF RAID.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-France: Over the past few weeks, wide swings in rhetoric have called into question France’s intentions in Ukraine. Largely arising out of confusing and contradictory statements between President Macron and senior defense officials, France’s official policy regarding the potential deployment of French soldiers to Ukraine has not been clearly outlined. However, recent statements by senior defense officials indicate that France may potentially send up to 20,000 soldiers to Ukraine.-HomeFront-Arkansas: Yesterday one ATF agent was shot while attempting to serve a search warrant in a dawn raid at the home of Bryan Malinowski. During the exchange of gunfire, Malinowski himself was shot in the head, and is currently on life support. The cause for the raid has not been made public. AC: Malinowski is the Executive Director of the Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport in Little Rock. He has been affiliated with the airport in varying capacities for over 30 years, and was appointed to his current position in 2019.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: In Europe, NATO members have expressed inconsistent policy stances as it becomes increasingly obvious that Ukraine is losing the war. As such, the atmospherics around the issue have rapidly shifted from “we would never consider sending NATO troops to Ukraine” to “we’re looking at only sending 20,000 French soldiers”. The expediency of this rhetoric shift indicates the severity of the situation. Of course, even considering this new rhetoric, the overall situation does not change that much. The most loosely-guarded secret of the war is that NATO troops from dozens of nations have secretly been fighting in Ukraine (in limited roles) under the classic guise of being “advisors”. Since the first day of the war, it is almost certain that American “advisors” secretly were running the show at most echelons of military command. If France were to openly send tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine, the military value of this would be negligible at this late stage. However, France may be trying to maneuver Ukraine into a better negotiating position by doing so. War is indeed a continuation of politics by other means, however special talents are required to make the inverse true and use the threat of war to force a better political position. As such, the open discussion of sending NATO troops to directly fight Russia in Ukraine is likely to cause difficult questions to arise; questions that the prior secrecy afforded ignorance of due to political leadership and diplomats not understanding the severity of the games they are playing.Analyst: S2A1//END REPORT//