The Wire Weekly Rollup - February 25-March 2, 2024

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//February 25 – March 2, 2024//-----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Red Sea/HOA: Following the Houthi cruise missile strike on the M/V RUBYMAR in the Red Sea two weeks ago, this nondescript vessel was discovered to be adrift (and likely dragging her anchor) following her crew abandoning ship after the strike.Far East: Japan has announced the revitalization of homeland defense policies amid the steady increase in tensions throughout Asia. Japanese defense officials are planning to examine the need and implementation requirements for the creation of bunkers and bomb shelters for residents living on some of Japan’s more remote outlying islands.Eastern Europe: On Tuesday, the breakaway Republic of Transnistria voted to request to become a protectorate of Russia. This largely unknown semi-autonomous region situated in eastern Moldova along the Ukrainian border has suffered the impacts of poor relations with Moldova, leading to this recent vote. AC: It is unclear as to what Russia’s response will be. However, as the information war is in full effect, the implication that Transnistria could become another Donetsk is palpable as roughly 250,000 self-described Russians inhabit this region. However, though the Transnistrian issue is unlikely to become an additional front in the Ukrainian war, both Russia and the West could seek to capitalize on these fears in order to stoke even more defense funding and pressure NATO members even further. Russia could also be motivated to use this as a way to turn the screws to the west as Sweden’s accession to NATO is all but certain.Canada: Several bills have been introduced in Parliament with the goal of suppressing and criminalizing speech and establishing in law the concept of pre-crime. Bill C-63, as introduced for the First Reading this week, seeks to modify the Criminal Code to create a new hate crime offense that specifically introduces life sentences for some speech crimes. This bill also allows for the preemptive house-arrest of anyone who authorities suspect may commit a hate speech crime in the future. This follows the introduction of Bill C-372 (which was tabled earlier this month) which intends to criminalize the “promotion” of fossil fuels. This bill (as it stands) was allegedly intended to restrict corporate advertising, however most of the restrictions apply to everyday citizens who could face jail time for simply stating that fossil fuels are cheaper or more reliable than allegedly “renewable” energy sources.-HomeFront-TX: Severe wildfires impacted substantial parts of the panhandle this week following a rapid increase in favorable fire weather conditions. The Smokehouse Creek Fire suddenly became the largest fire in Texas history (and the second largest in U.S. history), reaching a size of over 1 million acres this week. Friday morning, precipitation greatly aided firefighting efforts, but several large wildfires continue to impact much of northern Texas.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Though the M/V RUBYMAR seems unworthy of such focused attention, shortly after this incident began, telecom providers in the region reported issues with their undersea cables, possibly indicating that up to four cables had been severed. As Houthi forces have repeatedly threatened to target submarine cables, the natural assumption was that Houthi forces may have been involved. However, as the RUBYMAR is confirmed to have been dragging her anchor for two weeks, it is possible that this is the cause of these reported outages. As a reminder, the overwhelming majority of cable-cutting incidents involve either vessels dragging anchor, or undersea seismic events. Consequently, though no independent verification can be made at this time, it is worth considering that the RUBYMAR’s anchor may have been the reason for the recent telecoms issues. Likewise, as the vessel has