Solana Weekly # 29 - The Dip That Keeps Dipping

What’s up everybody! This is Thomas Bahamas and you are here for episode number 29 of Solana Weekly. Here to drop some alpha on what's going on and where we're going. I apologize for the terrible audio last week, let’s see how much better this one is. I think the theme of this week is FUD! With the timeline down bad and the vibes even more down bad, the SEC calling Sol a security, bags being dumped, we’ve achieved max fud. I think it’s a good time to take a look at our convictions, and then make sure that our risk profile is in line with how we think things will play out. Sol Price: $14.95 - down a total of 27% from 20.68, we’re down bad. We took a hit and it’s a direct response from the SEC actions. Whether it’s big firms not willing to hold riskier assets, or market makers not willing to stay in the market, we had a massive sell off across major alts. I believe $5 billion of value was wiped in a few hours. The majority were the assets labelled securities in the Coinbase and Binance lawsuits which makes sense. .sol Eth: From .01107 down to .00859 which is down 22.39%. We are seeing Eth move from an alt coin to a major. It will likely not be called a security and this should have positive effects across the board, but we are seeing why that is important. It held it’s value really well, while we see the dip. There is more upside with Solana, but there is more risk and we see that on the downside. Sol BTC: .0005755 down a total of 24.58% and is not great. Will this chart ever turn around? I don’t know, I keep calling for it, but we continue to go down. My guess is BTC might actually have a pump before Sol, so it might be a good time to have a bag. I don’t like it, but it might be the way. From last week we continue to see the SEC and Binance and Coinbase fight publicly. The difference that I’m hearing is that Coinbase is in a much stronger position. They will likely have some large fines to pay and will continue to operate. They also continue to have the tokens deemed securities listed on their exchange. While Binance has much more serious allegations against it, from comingling funds to supporting terrorist funds, they have a bigger fight on their hands and they will be shutting their doors to the US. Flight to BTC - many projects up and leaving Sol for BTC, I think it’s dumb. The experience is so terrible that it might feel fun at first, but it’s really not. XRP - The Ripple case is upon us and everyone seems to think it is one of the last things that can save us. They released some Hinman files, and all it appears to have is discussion on how ETH wasn’t deemed a security a few years ago. Everyone wants an easy solution out of this, and I just don’t think there is one. Ripple is literally the worst example of a cryptocurrency and rallying behind it feels like a sham. It’s basically a token that allowed the founders to dump it on retail and take billions off the table from it. They have bot army’s, and have a warchest from dumping on retails for as long as they’ve been around. Their use case: settlement of funds. EVERY crytpocurrency does this! It’s bagholders that got rekt and are hoping for a way out. The absolute worse case scenario for Solana is turning into bagholders without any real use cases. It is my opinion that we’re building so many use cases right now this will never happen, but still. There is a bill to fire Gensler, and I’m all for it, I wouldn’t bet on it passing though. Sol Beach bum with another banger thread on value accrual:https://twitter.com/solbeachbum/status/1668600382547718146?s=46&t=uc83EyjkPaOcRgJ63RUtbgIt’s funny, because you can take the value prop of any big crypto, Ethereum in this example, and play that out with Sol. The value proposition of Ethereum isn’t unique, it can apply to much more, and a more useful chain could get more value out of it using their own models for appraising value. CPI came it at 4%, under expectations which is great, and the stock market got a rally. Crypto did not. Overall the outlook really isn’t great for the short term. It’s time to prep for the worst, but position yourself to take advantage of mismatches you see in the market. While the price of Sol has dipped, NFT prices haven’t shifted at all. If you have stables around, you can buy into blue chips for a 30% + discount. I didn’t even really bring up NFT’s because it’s not where my mind is at, their value is tied to the value of Solana. I’m still convinced that we see Solana go higher and now is the time that our conviction gets tested. Solana is for the users and is the only blockchain you can actually use right now at a reasonable price and speed. Stay safe out there and let’s stack some cheap coins while we can. Think long term, leverage isn’t needed, but conviction is. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thomasbahamas.substack.com