155 – Normal Predictions, and Change is Bad

The Conspiracy comes out strongly in favor of switching to Normal Predictions, which is safe and easy when you use the Jan Christian Refsgaard method! Also, we agree with Zvi that Change is Bad. (Though note that changing to Normal Predictions has so many positives that it outweighs the Bad of Change, so don’t let that dissuade you in this instance.) Things of interest: Scott Alexander’s predictions 2022 Timing: 32:15 Main Topic 1:38:43 Thank the Patron Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? Also merch! Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode: Evaluability (And Cheap Holiday Shopping) Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: The Halo Effect Superhero Bias Mere Messiahs