#060 Tom Lee On Why Stocks Are Already In A New Uptrend

Tom Lee (@fundstrat), managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat and FS Insight, joins Julia La Roche on episode 60 to discuss macro and markets. In this episode, Tom makes a case that the markets bottomed in October 2022, and stocks have already been in an uptrend. He also shares what he thinks the bears are getting wrong. With nearly 30 years of macro markets and equity research experience, Lee is one of Wall Street's most widely recognized and followed macro strategists. He’s best known for his evidence-based work on equity markets and fast-growing technologies, including digital assets and wireless technologies. Viewers and listeners of The Julia La Roche Show get a complimentary 30-day membership to FS Insight by using this link: http://fsinsight.com/julialaroche 0:00 Intro 0:31 30 years on Wall Street 3:10 How markets work 5:19 Psychology plays a far bigger role than people realize 5:54 Macro outlook 7:01 Inflation appears to be slowing 8:03 Stock market is starting to see that the valley is behind us 9:18 Inflation peaked last year 10:31 Market bottomed in October 2022 10:50 Two things happened that is a big deal for the market 12:05 What are the bears missing? 13:58 Stock market was bad between February and October 14:49 Bias in the markets 16:50 Contrarian 19:21 Recognizing biases 22:22 Investors have to pay attention to people in their 20s, 30s 23:50 Tech is more important than any other decade 25:28 Only two ways to solve the labor shortage 28:00 Thoughts on AI and large language models 31:59 The Fed 36:13 Stock market is a good discounting mechanism 38:17 Yield curve is important to respect 42:20 Why have we avoided a recession? 45:00 Tech layoffs 51:06 Contrarian ideas 55:35 Biggest risk