#068 Ray Dalio On Where We Are In The Changing World Order

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins Julia La Roche on episode 68 to discuss where we are in the changing world order, the macroeconomic outlook, and the rising tensions between the U.S. and China. Dalio revisited his thesis from his best-selling book, "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail." The investor outlined three significant forces, including enormous debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the U.S., due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (the U.S.) and the existing world order. Dalio points out that the last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. 0:00 Intro 1:52 Introducing Ray 2:14 Macro picture 2:56 3 big forces shaping the world 5:14 2 other big influences 7:20 Tracking the typical cycle 7:50 We're in stage 5 when there are very bad financial conditions and intense conflict 10:20 U.S. and China approaching greater risk of War 11:02 Debt problem 12:57 If you mark-to-market bonds at existing rates, you have a lot of financially hurt entities worldwide 13:35 Silicon Valley Bank is a 'canary in the coal mine' 18:00 Political internal fighting 19:45 Emergence of populism 21:41 The cycle in the U.S. since 1945 23:45 Over-indebtedness and increasing wealth gaps 25:38 Spend more than we earn, in debt, and large wealth, opportunity, and values gaps 28:01 Can we avoid the decline? 28:41 If Ray Dalio were president… 30:16 If you worry, you don't have to worry. 31:22 U.S.-China relationship 35:00 The redline 36:40 Brinksmanship 37:15 Risk of investing or doing business in China 40:00 World order breakdown 41:33 The bifurcation 43:00 'I know I'm scaring people…' 44:40 The biggest risk on Ray's mind 45:54 'One thing Democrats and Republicans are united on is anti-China.' 49:30 U.S. Treasuries 51:42 Portfolio construction 54:24 Diversify internationally 55:58 Status of the U.S. dollar, de-dollarization story 57:57 Bitcoin views today 1:01:01 Bridgewater, after stepping down 1:03:57 Parting thoughts