#072 Christopher Zook: A Recession Is Coming And It’s Going to Be Deeper and Longer Than People Think

Christopher Zook, founder and Chief Investment Officer of CAZ Investments, which oversees around $5 billion in assets under management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 72 for a wide-ranging macroeconomic discussion.  In this episode, Zook shares that a recession is coming, and it’s “going to be deeper and probably longer than people think.” He adds that we’ll have a “manufactured recession,” where inflation is running so hot that the Federal Reserve has to raise rates fast to slow down inflation, forcing the economy into a recession. Moreover, he points out that markets believe the Fed will start cutting rates by the end of the year, something Zook does not expect to happen.   In these types of environments, Zook is looking for opportunities in dislocated assets or persistent assets that perform well, even if his hypothesis is found to be true.  Zook has over 30 years of experience investing in traditional and alternative asset classes. He was recently honored with the Texas Alternative Investments Association’s (TAIA) Lifetime Achievement Award in recognition of his contribution and sustained support of the industry in Texas. He regularly contributes to major media outlets, including CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. Before starting CAZ Investments in 2001, Zook served in senior leadership positions with Oppenheimer, Prudential Securities, Lehman Brothers, and Paine Webber. 0:00 Intro 2:12 Welcoming Christopher Zook to the show 2:50 Beginnings in investing  3:43 Trading commodities to pay for college 4:40 Reading about traders  5:55 Managing risk extremely carefully  7:20 Starting own firm  8:20 Managing money at age 22  8:50 Set goal to start firm in 10 years  9:50 Tony Robbins  10:40 The bigger the way, the bigger the try  14:00 Zook’s “why”  16:20 CAZ Investments structure and focus  18:36 Thematic approach  20:30 Betting against subprime housing  25:00 Macro outlook 25:12 Meme stock bubble  26:23 It takes longer than people think to reconcile dislocations  27:07 We haven’t seen true dislocation yet  27:40 Recession is coming and it will be deeper and longer than people think  28:08 A manufactured recession  29:00 I’ll be shocked if the Fed cuts rates this year 30:06 More of a 2-3 year recession  31:00 Disconnect between the Fed and the market  33:20 Be greedy when others are fearful  33:54 Stagflation  34:34 Worst economic regime for financial assets  38:13 Opportunities  40:20 Themes right now  41:09 Cord-cutting  41:40 Opportunity in sports teams, media rights 43:55 Themes that exist in real estate today  45:40 Stress from higher rates will force refinancing  46:45 Why we haven’t seen panic selling yet  47:45 Every sector of real estate will be stressed  50:40 U.S. Dollar outlook  53:39 U.S. debt levels are terrifying  56:29 Growth of private assets  57:04 Opportunity in GP stakes