#080 Nick Glinsman: Investors Beware China

Macro investor Nicholas Glinsman (@nglinsman), co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, joins Julia La Roche on episode 80 for a wide-ranging discussion on China. In this episode, Glinsman highlights the risks investors and corporate decision-makers face with their investments in China, including the inability to get money out of the country. Link to Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Daily Ahead of the Heard and Malmgren Institutional Research: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/ Read Harald Malmgren (@Halsrethink) and Nick Glinsman’s “China Will Be The Next Japan” paper here: http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W23_Malmgren.pdf 0:00 Show open 1:08 Welcome Nick Glinsman 1:40 From Salomon Brothers to hedge funds 2:28 Harald Malmgren  5:08 Long Dollar against Chinese Yuan trade  6:25 Assessment of macro environment  7:24 The Fed  9:00 Regional banks, commercial real estate  15:00 Liquidity 18:00 Liquidity impact 23:30 China  25:50 Xi is decoupling China’s economic model  29:30 Investors need to be careful about putting money in China  34:14 Anecdote of a friend who couldn’t get capital out of the country  37:30 Getting money out of Hong Kong is difficult  43:22 A lot of corporate earnings are going to be kept in China  46:40 China Is The Next Japan  51:00 Chinese growth to disappoint headed for “Lost Decade”  55:30 EV cars 58:00 Parting thoughts