#087 Jason Trennert: If You're Playing The Odds Expect A Recession In The Next 6-12 Months

Jason Trennert, co-founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macro picture. Strategas has been voted the top independent macro research provider by Institutional Investor for six consecutive years. Trennert discusses the major macro themes that will shape the investment climate for the foreseeable future. 0:00 Intro 1:06 Quite cautious on the markets/economy  2:40 Chances are good that you’re going to get a recession  4:33 The magnificent seven  6:06 40% of the Russell 2000 has not had profits in the last 12 months  7:10 Inflation  9:00 Long way away from the Fed easing  10:25 Not buying stocks at reasonable prices right now  12:30 Opportunities, energy sector  15:30 Thoughts on AI   17:50 Themes  18:40 The end of globalization  22:11 Labor market  24:17 Hard or soft landing  26:00 Regional banks  27:48 Energy sector 32:50 Lobbying ETF (policy opportunities)  37:24 TINA  40:30 Fair value of S&P is probably between 3500-4100 42:00 Career in financial markets