#091 Peter Atwater On The Troubling Disconnect Between Main Street & Wall Street

On episode 91, Julia La Roche is joined by Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William & Mary, and author of "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity". Atwater explains how confidence is the real "invisible hand" in our economy, markets, and everyday lives. He also shares his concern about the divergent economy, where billionaire confidence is soaring while a large population feels left behind, not only in the US but also in other countries. Atwater is the first who shared the notion of a K-shaped recovery in the economy. Links:  The Confidence Map: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/ Peter’s website: https://peteratwater.com/ 0:00 Intro / Background 2:48 Psychology of investor decision-making and economic decision-making 3:35 Behavioral economists typically focus on what we do wrong 4:30 The role of confidence  6:40 Confidence Quadrant framework  10:00 Application of the Confidence Quadrant on macro/micro level  13:00 Executives discussing AI  14:47 Investors are in the “comfort zone” on the Confidence Quadrant  15:35 The K-shaped recovery  17:48 If markets were to price in Main Street sentiment they would considerably lower  18:30 Two different sets of moods and preferences  20:30 Assessment of the current state of America today  24:00 Evaluating consumer confidence and the 2016 election  28:00 Gen Z’s confidence?  31:00 Millennials’ sentiment  33:00 Real life moves us around  35:00 Music and the mood  38:00 Taylor Swift phenomenon  39:30 Peak confidence?  40:30 Mania in the Magnificent Seven  41:15 Passive investing puts investors in the “passenger seat”  44:00 Elon Musk is the “Kevin Bacon” of every popular investment theme 47:20 Media is the “mirror of mood”  50:30 Why confidence is the real “invisible hands”  53:00 Best indicator of an upcoming recession  55:00 Bidenomics is another sentiment indicator