#207 Dr. Gary Shilling On The Odds Of A Recession, Hidden Flaws In The Economy, And The 'Debt Bomb' Coming In The U.S.

Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode on episode 207 to discuss the state of the economy. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. Timestamps: # Timestamps for Dr. Gary Shilling Interview 00:00 Welcome Dr. Shilling 00:55 Macro view, analysis of labor markets and recent employment data 02:39 Fed's priorities and concerns about labor market softening 03:26 Discussion of upcoming Fed meeting and rate cut expectations 04:59 Explanation of soft landings vs recessions 07:26 Analysis of current economic imbalances 09:14 Assessment of recession probability (40-50%) 12:52 Discussion of economic forecasting as art vs science 16:17 Analysis of bond market outlook 19:36 Discussion of inflation expectations and bond yields 22:42 Portfolio positioning and investment opportunities 24:06 Analysis of India vs China investment outlook 27:11 Assessment of upcoming US election implications 28:49 Discussion of debt and deficit issues 31:15 Analysis of US dollar's reserve currency status 32:36 Closing remarks and contact information Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).