Forecasting with Out-Liars

In this Short Talk episode John Mink joins Judith Germain to discuss forecasting challenges, sharing lessons from a career navigating supply chain complexities. John encourages curiosity, empathy and taking responsibility for one's cultural impact, believing small positive actions can help break cycles of blame and barrier-building between teams. Key Takeaways Culture is critical for accurate forecasting and good business outcomes. Blame culture leads to poor results. Assumptions must be aligned before forecasting. Understand market conditions and business goals first. Incentives should consider overall business health - revenue, costs, cash flow, customer service. Not just forecast accuracy. Bias creeps in when forecast tied too closely to individual incentives. Need holistic view. Methodical approach: agree on assumptions, align on goals, unbiased data inputs. In this conversation John stresses aligning all forecasters on key assumptions like market conditions before inputting individual forecasts, to establish a shared baseline and prevent wasted arguing. John Mink is a Supply Chain Executive. You can find out more about our guest and today's episode in this Maverick Paradox Magazine article here. --- Maverick leadership is all about thinking outside the box and challenging the status quo. It's about having the courage to take risks and the confidence to lead in a way that is authentic and genuine. But amplifying your influence as a leader isn't just about having a strong vision or a big personality. It's also about having the right leadership capability and being able to execute on your ideas and plans. The consequences of not having the right level of influence as a leader can be significant. Without the ability to inspire and motivate others, you may struggle to achieve your goals and make a real impact. How Influential Are you? Take the scorecard at amplifyyourinfluence.scoreapp.com and see.  Catalysing Transformation - 1 min video Judith's book: The Maverick Paradox: The Secret Power Behind Successful Leaders.  Judith's websites:  The Maverick Paradox Magazine - themaverickparadox.com The Maverick Paradox Website - maverickparadox.co.uk Judith's LinkedIn profile is here, her Twitter profile (MaverickMastery) is here, Facebook here and Instagram here.