Are higher interest rates prohibitive to making profits in real estate today?

Aaron Chapman is a veteran in the finance industry with 25 years of experience helping clients better understand, source, and finance cash-flow positive investment properties. He advises over 100 clients a month in the acquisition and financing of their investment properties and primary residences. Aaron is ranked in the top 1% of mortgage loan processors in the country, in an industry of over 300,000 licensed loan originators, closing in excess of 100 transactions per month. In today’s episode Aaron gives us his take on the current interest rate and inflationary environment, where he sees things going, and his thoughts on what investors should be doing in a time like this. Episode link: https://www.aaronbchapman.com/ https://apps.apple.com/uy/app/qjo-investment-tool/id1533823468 --- Transcript Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor Podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.   Michael: What's going on everyone? Welcome to another episode of the remote real estate investor. I'm Michael Albaum and today I'm joined by Aaron Chapman, who's a lender, investor, bearded man and entrepreneur as well as an author and he's going to be talking to us about inflation and using long term debt as your battle ax against it. So let's get into it.   Aaron Chapman, what's going on, man? Thanks for taking the time to come hang out with me. I appreciate it.   Aaron: What’s happening brother thanks for the invite. I think I kind of pushed my way in a little bit but I just   Michael: Invite, forced invite.   Aaron: Let’s put that way.   Michael: Ya, no happy to happy to and it's been a minute since since we saw each other over think Realty in Tampa. How you bee?   Aaron: Been very good man. Think Realty in Tampa seems like so long ago, because I've been to Tampa two times since then. Miami a couple of times. Literally, I don't get to see very much of anything. But seats 3d of American Airlines is what it seems like.   Michael: And that's pretty close up to the front of that first class?   Aaron: It's always first it's what I've discovered in my career, it used to be you know, you got to you got to hang on to your capital is really kind of dumb to spend money unnecessarily. But then I got to thinking. So like I said first a few times, and I sat next to some amazing people. So it's not about the seat. It's about the person next to you. And more often than not, it's often enough, let's put that I sat next to some people, just some amazing conversations that end up doing business with some people when they didn't want to talk to me. And then it wasn't long, they were talking to me. And then they're giving me pointers, one guy who was like one of the executives over at the Business Journal. And I was finally DC next year, he's telling me all the cool places to go in DC. And now I've seen him pop up online. And I'll check in with him to see what's going on just a really cool guy that I recognized him by couldn't place who he was, until I got in talking. And then I found figured out who he was. So it's just, that's the kind of person that I ended up sitting with. And it's more the conversation than anything.   Michael: What a different way of thinking about things like so many people see the price of the ticket. They're like, Oh, I don't want to pay that or like the experience. But you're you're approaching with a whole different lens. I love it, man.   Aaron: Well, it's kind of how I approach going out for an expensive dinner paying a big tip, things like that. It's like, we know what's happening with the dollar right? It's not doing a whole lot sitting in our bank account. And believe me, I agree with holding on to cash, I believe I agree with investing wisely. But I also agree with taking that capital and putting it someplace where you're building relationships and building up somebody else. And so there's times when somebody does a great job, man throwing $100 tip on a on $100 Dinner is not an uncommon thing in my world. And that's not me beating my chest. It's that person earned it and what's that 100 bucks going to do in my world? My wife will ---- it away on somebody Amazon, right? So it's really not going to, it's not going to enhance our lives that much. But you'd be amazed at what it does to that person. And you walk back in there to that place you think that person forgot you? Well, they definitely don't forget me with the braids.   Michael: I was gonna say yeah, with a look like that. Yeah,   Aaron: Yeah, that's remembered. But then they remember that. And then it's there's this, I talked about the economy of gratitude a lot, and that autonomy kicks in. And they will do more and go above and beyond. Of course, now you're kind of stuck to $100   Michael: That’s the minimum, yeah, the bar has been set.   Aaron: So you got to be careful of how often you do go back or when you go back, you'd be amazed at the interaction you have with this person. It's a life changing experience. Because our like our lives are changed by the people that we interact with. And not necessarily what what we what we grow in it or what we amass in it is the relationships that we have.   Michael: I love it. I love it. Let's give people the quick and dirty of who you are and where you come from and what is it you're doing in real estate and then we'll jump into kind of the meat what I wanted to cover today.   Aaron: Very cool. So the quick and dirty is not so quick and but it's kind of dirty. So the interesting thing I was sitting in an event happen to be in Tampa, we were just talking about Tampa. This was years ago and one of the main speakers there talked about the lending industry that being a loan officer and he said the reason people become a loan officers because they can't get a job doing anything else. And it rang really, really true to me because that was my story. You go back to you know, I grew up on a cattle ranch in high school and from there to work in the oil fields in Wyoming drove truck ran heavy equipment, found myself in the mines in northern New Mexico in the late 90s. And they started to shut down the project and so I got laid off and I thought no big deal. I'll find a job easy and I had a wife and kid back in Arizona and I was up in northern New Mexico I go back and forth, went back and I couldn't find a job for nothing. I tried like crazy everything I applied for I got this this statement of being overqualified. I kept getting turned down.   And things were getting dire at that point, I needed to make something happen. And as I left to go apply for a $10 an hour truck driving job to me, it was like the worst thing I could possibly do, but it was gonna put, bring money so I can at least feed my family. My wife as I left gave me a coupon for free diapers. So I drove over to this place, I applied the general manager turned me down again said I was overqualified. So I'm 23 years old, I feel broken, and walking down to my truck up coming from the type one of those job site type trailers go down the stairs. Get on my truck, said a quick prayer. I was really just I was trying to hold back the tears started up my truck and I started pointing myself to this grocery store. Well, as I'm headed to the grocery store, my gas light comes on in my truck. I had never ran that thing long enough to find out how long ago on a gas light. So I quickly found a store that had a groat a gas station on the corner. I pulled up that pump, got my debit card out, I said a quick prayer, prayer, I swiped it and I got declined.   So I rifle through my truck looking for a lost dollar, found a few coins, I closed it lock the door, I started walking that grocery store pocket parking lot. And as I'm looking around, you know, I would find something on the ground look, make sure nobody's looking, reach out quickly pick it up, put in my pocket. This went on for what seemed like a couple hours. And then I got enough change that I thought would give me a couple gallons of gas. Luckily, it was 97 were Yeah, 1997 I think gallon, a gallon, a gallon gas, like 89 cents. So I went and exchanged my change, which was a couple hours of my life for two gallons of gas, went into the grocery store with my coupon, found those diapers hurried up and went to the checkout counter. I don't know if you've ever been this position, but nothing feels worse to, in my opinion, to have one item and your coupon for that one item. Right. And now it was just another just another crappy feeling to the day. So I got my stuff put in the bag, and I'm screaming either as fast as I can. And somebody recognized me.   He called me over and I didn't want to talk to anybody. But he asked me how things were. And I told him what I just told you. He goes, Let's go to dinner. I'm like, Dude, I can't afford dinner. And I hated saying that. He was no, no, no, I got a gift certificate to Red Lobster. I'll take you your wife out. So we went to Red Lobster a couple of nights later. And that's where he told me about the mortgage industry. He explained to me what happened in it? And I'm like, Dude, how can I do this? I know nothing about that. I think there's numbers involved, and I cheated my butt off to get that C in high school. If it wasn't for the fact that could pick a lock, I would not have graduated.   So I went in, I cut a foot off of my hair, I shaved. My mom bought me some business likes clothes, and I wouldn't do an interview. And they started me as a telemarketer in 1997. So that's how I got going. So going from a telemarketer to working actually some of my own leads to building this up and going through the crash and all kinds of stuff. And there's a bunch of stories in there. To now, you know, I was just called by an outfit by modex. And they recognize me I think is the number six guy in the United States. For transactions closed. I was number one guy in Arizona, I didn't even realize that I didn't really pay attention to the statistics, there's 1.6 million people in United States that do what I do. And from what I can tell, I'm ranked number six for how many deals I closed last year. So it's kind of an interesting dynamic to consider that swing.   Michael: Yeah, I'll say, Well, you know, congratulations on how you've come clearly a long way. That's really exciting.   Aaron: Well, thank you. And there is campfire story after a campfire story of of the different things we'll probably talk about this in the series of stuff we talking about the beatings that a person takes to become successful. And you don't what's really interesting is people say, How do you get there? How do you how do you achieve success? Mike, I'll let you know when I do. Because you just don't feel like it all the time. It's a consistent grind. You're always trying to be ahead of the head of everybody else. And once you achieve something, it's way harder to keep it.   Michael: Yeah, I think people think it's like this just flat curve, you know, flat line once you've achieved something, but really, it's very sinusoidal. It's up and down and valleys and troughs. And you're like, man, some days suck. And some days are great, but the like, I think it's about the end destination right? Where you're trying to get to   Aaron: 100%. So I look at it like Everest, right? You get up there. And I don't know, if you've ever really paid attention. Maybe you've climbed the same for all I know, but how long a person sits on top of Everest, it's a matter of minutes, and they're getting back down because that sucker will kill you. You know, and so it's it's just like any other achievement, we get the second you sit back and you relax and put your feet up. It's gonna kill you. You need to keep moving, you got to get down, you got to get to the next Everest. And it can be debilitating to think that we're constantly hunting the next goal. The next goal, the next goal, instead of just finding the happiness, you know, and you our viewers know who Larry Yatch is he says, you know, success is a optimized daily experience consistently achievable, right, something to that effect there are and so and it's sustainable over time. Yeah. I gotta find that optimized daily experience. Here's what I got to do. I don't think I've achieved finding that yet.   Michael: I'm right there with you, man. We're in the hunt together.   Aaron: Yes. And we'll keep hunting and maybe we'll keep communicating about one of these days. You're like, Dude, I found it.   Michael: Yes. let me show you. So, let's shift gears here a little bit and talk about a topic that I think is on everyone's mind. And that's inflation. And you're working in the mortgage industry for a long time, you've seen a lot of ups and downs, sideways lifts, REITs give us a little bit of insight into why is inflation being talked about so much? And what do we as investors need to be cognizant of, and either using it or being abused by it.   Aaron: So inflation is definitely an interesting animal. And it's talked about a lot, everybody is talking about this constantly. And what I point a lot of people to just even understand inflation is go to a place called Shadowstats.com. When you go to shadow stats, you're gonna go to, and I always encourage everybody to get log into it get to pay for the 100 bucks for the year, whatever, you're gonna go over to alternate data, you're gonna scroll down to inflation, you're going to find this chart, and what this chart has, it's going to be going to show you from 19, from the early 1980s, up until now, and it's going to have two different lines, a blue line and a red line. And they're going to be, they're going to be diverging at some point, they're gonna stay together at one point, they're gonna go down to when they show inflation started work its way down, and then they start to kind of break apart. And what you're watching there is the federal funds rate itself, or not the federal funds rate, but the CPI that the Fed tends to track, and it's what they have changed the index to contain. Right?   So you're familiar with the Dow and the NYSC. And the and the NASDAQ, right? s&p, right, the s&p, none of them have the exact same value Correct. They're all different because they have things in them. Well, if you didn't get into, if you look at the the CPI, the Consumer Price Index, they will stack certain things in there that they can manipulate with monetary policy. And that's what they'll go off of. And you can see in this chart, that it's going to show that that that red line is skipping across the bottom right around their 2% Mark quite a bit, and then it spikes up to about eight and a half 9%, which is where we've been at recently. But if you look at the real rate of inflation, which is the shadow statline, it's going to be pushing up closer to 17. Why is that?   Well, because back in the 80s, they took everything into account, what is the person really literally spending money on to on their day to day life, and they're going to track it so they can see how much their life is changing year over year as far as their expenses. But then they wait a minute, it's getting out of hand, because what we do to pass the law for will increase their their benefits or their social security and the retirement benefits to the rate of inflation. Well, we need to keep this to 2%. Right. So we don't want to raise that really, really quick. That's where you start seeing this particular manipulation? Well, if we're looking at 17%, people should really, really, really be concerned about what's happening with their dollar, because what's the dollar value doing with inflation?   Michael: Decreasing.   Aaron: Decreasing, right? It doesn't spend as far. So what I like to do is talk about this in the sense that it's always been that way. And when we're talking about real estate investing, you know, the, in my opinion, where a person does best when it comes to real estate investing is leveraging the property, you know, the way to leverage the properties, get some sort of financing instrument on it, if you're gonna get financing on it, you want to get it for as long as you possibly can. Because at that point, the longer you take a pay, the less you actually pay, because the dollar you're paying it with is worth less and less and less every year.   So I know in today's higher rate environment, we're talking about inflation is pushing interest rates up. And if you look back at the history of inflation, last time, we saw inflation of this, this magnitude, you'll see in some charts that will show the history of inflation, and how it's somewhere right around 20%. But then you can see the history of the interest rates and the interest rates were closer to the same 17-18% for a 30 year fixed. Well, if we're where we are, as far as inflation is concerned, actually inflation was right around this 13 to 15%, where we are today. And then we're talking to interest rates at 19%. Well, the federal funds rate achieved over 20% at that timeframe. We're not there right now. So explain to people is the gap that we have there as a gift.   Right now we're seeing somewhere in the sevens for 30 year fixed interest rates. And that's, you know, we're talking about this in October, the 2022. Do I expect it to get higher that I really do because of all the uncertainty within the market. But if you've locked it in and that interest rate for 30 years, and inflation stays consistently higher than that, you're never even going to pay back what you borrowed. In fact, I have an app to prove that, you know, people want to go to just go to my website, shoot me a message, I'll get you the app. And you can download this thing on your phone. And you can calculate your amortization table and then see what inflation did and how you paid less than what you borrowed over a 30 year window even though you're paying higher interest in what you hoped.   Michael: We have to come back to that point because that's so counterintuitive and the exact opposite of what everyone tells you. When you look at the sum total you paid over a mortgage. But before we get there, I want to ask is it appropriate to look purely at The rate of inflation against interest rates? Or do we also have to take into account just the pure purchase price that we're seeing today? Or is it become irrelevant?   Aaron: I think they're all a factor. Because sometimes when you're let's look back at interest rates go backwards a year, right? Interest rates were in the threes and fours were people buying investment properties. Unbelievable, we'd never actually seen that, and never thought that I would ever see that. But what's happened to the prices of houses, what what you're doing is you're opening up where they were, they say the affordability index had a right how that worked in and more people could afford houses. Well, the more people that could afford houses, the more people bidding on those houses, right, the more of those houses got bid up beyond their real value, price does not equal value in an environment like that people are just willing to pay an enormous amount of money.   Well, because of that, all that affordability, it was so so called built into it because of lower interest rate was getting eroded by the fact that pushing the price so high. So now we're at this really interesting point where the prices are still fairly high compared to, to the, I'd say the real value of real estate because of what people are willing to pay. But our interest rates have increased to not quite to the highest it could and it's really not as high as the national as the average has been since 1971. But it's going to slow that down, I think an equilibrium equilibrium is going to kick in here at some point. And you might see those prices start to decrease a bit. And then of course, it's going to make a little bit more sense. So there's going to be people sitting on the side and waiting and watching. But then again, are they going to increase or decrease that much this begs the other question, were five point I think 5.2 million units short to fulfill the needs of that for housing United States. And then you're we're already short on that. We don't have as many building permits happening. We don't have the supply chain we used to, and now we have how many houses just got wiped out in Florida, you start compounding all this out, man. I'm telling people if you're in a contract, you probably want to stay in that thing. Because if you're backing out of a contract, because you don't like the price, you don't like the rates. Expect, just imagine what you're gonna like and a year from now, I don't think it's gonna get prettier.   Michael: Yeah. Yeah, that's really interesting perspective. Let's come back to what you said before about, when you look at the total amount you've paid. Over time, it actually ends up being less than the original amount you borrowed because of inflation. Walk us through that again,   Aaron: Gladly. And you're probably have to say that a lot to our conversation. Let's go back. You start with a topic. And now I go 100 different ways, because my mind is one, obviously, beautiful mind. There's a dude in here.. just just see it. So you've got. So when you think about our inflation, right, now, let's just take the BS metric that the feds throwing out there eight point, I think we're at 8.63%, if I remember correctly, right. So 8.3%, that means the dollar is losing 8.3% of its value every year. So if you take 8.3%, I'm gonna get my calculator out here on my phone. And we're going to divide that by 12. That means we're losing .691 percent of the value every single month. Is that not alarming .619% of the value every single month. So that's pretty well. So what I have here, and I'm just going to launch my launch my my app here, and anybody can get it is to QJO investment tool, you can go right to the app store and get the QJO investment tool. They may bleep me out here, guys, but it stands for the quit ------- off investment tool, because I think that's all a person does when they're so worried about interest rates.    So if we're doing say, a 20%, down on a $200,000 property, and you're putting, let's say it's a seven half percent interest rate, you're gonna have a payment of a principal and interest of $1,118.74. Not real bad, right? But now you're gonna pay over that period of time on that interest, you're gonna pay $402,747.56, right? 402K. You got a $200,000 house, you put 20% down, that's $160,000 loan. Right? And then you're going to pay $400,000 In principal and interest people like there's no way in hell, I'm going to do that. But when you recalculate, every time you make a payment, that payment is worth what did we say? Point six 9%? Less? So I'll write $6.90 per dollar. Last, is that right? Or is that? No, that's not quite right. It's eight, it'd be eight cents per dollar per year. So it's point 06 cents per mile. Right? Right. But when you per dollar when you recalculate that every time for 360 months, the actual inflation adjusted payment over 360 months is $152,466. That's less than what you borrowed and that's based on 8% inflation, just 8%   Because you think about that the dollar you're borrowing is seven and a half percent. You're paying a Back at an 8% decline, right now it's bigger than it's 8.3 8.4%. In fact, if you want to look at shadow stats, if you look all the way back, when you look how they track it, it's been over 8% since 2012. So in reality, you're never paying back what you borrowed because you're paying less them what they're getting in the form of interest. You're paying, you're literally getting paid to hold their money. And what's really, really cool about this is where it gets awesome. Because of inflation, we get to raise rents, how much are rents going up year over year right now in the United States?   Michael: Like seven to 10%.   Aaron: Last time I saw it was 12. Right? When you average it all out? Dang. Yeah. To a fact,   Michael: I haven't looked for a while. Clearly,   Aaron: Property manager in Kansas City. I had him check it out. They ran their books, they figured they said there was like 14.2, we looked at the last year, Mike, wow, this is crazy. I'm looking at what my kids are paying right there. They're in these apartments, and they're bumping up two to $300 every year. To me, it's kind of immoral. Now I get there's costs go up, taxes go up, upkeep goes up, because you got you got supply chain issues, right? You've got workers, the man ain't fixing anything over there really fast. So it's not like I think that they're, they're hurting themselves. From what I'm hearing, right? They're staying in my house now. And again, because of the darn AC has out for a couple of days.   Those kinds of things. So when you think about that, what's going on in that type of environment, they're raising it like that? Well, let's see what I always tell people, we get to raise rents, even at just 5%. That's every time you raise rents, that's a compound on the previous year's rent, and then you compound it again and compounded again. So as you're compounding the increase in your income, you're compounding the decrease in what the lender makes, because they don't get to raise the payment because of inflation.   So eventually, it may suck for the first 2-3-4 years because of your start rate. And because of all that, and you know, people always like to use cash on cash return is their metric. I think it's a BS metric. Guys, that's not that's not ratio, focus. There's other places to focus, we'll talk about it. But when you start adding that up, and really, really working out the math on it over time, you start killing it at about years 5-6-7 And just compounds huge. Those who don't want to be able to hang for the first three to four years of the ones going to be off on the sidelines. And they're the ones going to say that real estate's not the place to be because of interest rates will they're the they're the the people in the crowd. They're the ones that are the spectators, that people on the field, know where it's supposed to be at and they understand it. And those are the ones going to take opportunity.   Michael: Love it. Aaron, let me ask you this, the Fed has tried to maintain inflation at around two to 3% annually. Right now we're up in that eight plus range. And so we did the math behind if inflation stays there for the duration of the 30 years that you're holding that loan. But if they get things under control, and it drops back down at 3%. I mean, did all of that benefit just get eroded?   Aaron: Well, we also have to look at what they're dropping by 3% They're dropping their index by 3%. And that's dropping the real rate of inflation by India by 3%. So I don't see that as being eroded because you look back at you know, go back to shadow stats, start looking at what they were they calculate real rate of inflation. We've been over 8% Since what since 2012. You have a consistent increase in inflation, it's going consistently up cost of living has not gotten cheaper. Now, I don't know when you were born, but in 19 in the 1980s I could jump on my, it was the late 80s I could jump on my skateboard my mom gave me $1 Literally $1 Bill, I could go down to the corner store, get a gallon of milk, buy some candy for me and bring change to her. how possible is that right now?   Michael: Um no, can’t even buy the candy for the dollar right now? No, I just bought a KitKat for a buck. 75 Check it out. That's ridiculous. Dude, it's this dark chocolate and mint. KitKat I'm like such a sucker for dark chocolate. It was amazing. But yeah, Buck 75.   Aaron: Well, it's probably probably an extra 10 cents for the blend, right? But, but again, kefir dollar 75. So that's what I'm saying a gallon of milk and I could get into it. It wasn't like the big jumbo candy bar, nut it was something. And I brought that change. But that was possible in like 1986, I think is when that was okay. It feels like a little while ago, but it shouldn't have changed that much. But it did. So if you look back at that's not a 2% inflation increase. That's common. That's some serious increase, especially the price of milk today. Right. So we started looking at that the Fed has never really kept it under 2% control.   The other thing is, is our inflation today, I don't know if we're really know the full outcome of what's going to happen with what they did with those printed dollars. They have put $8.9 trillion into the markets that they never were in before. If you look at their holdings with respect to mortgage backed securities and treasuries, $8.9 trillion. Then we have they backed off by point zero 2 trillion. And now we have interest rates more than double what happens when they back off by half. Right? So when you start thinking about what they did, and what we're that we're the the amount of money that's in circulation, there's got to be some really massive moves here to get this under control and One of the things that really kind of stands out to me and if you heard this conversation were Powell, the chairman of the Fed was speaking. One of the things he said, I don't remember the exact words. He says one thing we've learned about inflation is we know very little about inflation. That's alarming.   Michael: Yeah, big time.   Aaron: And that was said within the last 45 days, I think 45 to 60 days. So what I am taking by that is inflation. There's this big loaded oil tanker, right, and it's headed towards ground right now. And they didn't get off the throttle early enough with all the stuff they're doing. Now. They're dropping all these anchors, they're hooking up tugboats. They're doing everything think everything they can, but it's too, it's too late. It's going to run aground. And what that happens when it runs aground, I don't know. But it's going to be pretty ugly. And so that's why I tell everybody I'm dealing with, you need to control what you can control for as long as you can control it. And the one thing we can control right now is a 30 year fixed loan. An ARM, Are these things they call, what did they call this thing be all in one loans, it's an adjustable rate, just a single adjustable rate, kind of a credit line? Yeah, great concept. But we have no idea how it's going to react in an environment like this. So for me, it's like whatever you can do to maintain it and keep control of it. And then when you know, we know for a fact that sense right now to close on this 30 year fixed and pay the points and get the rate.   But what I do know is you're not going to pay it back, you're gonna pay less than what you borrowed. When you go with what the bank say, let's go with a five year or seven year, you have to do something with that loan, at some point. What did you just become a new client for the banks, that's what they want. That's what they say in the background, sell the arm because you're insuring your business for the future, the business for who the loan originator, not the person buying houses to rent out and to maintain a business, you are now become somebody's servant, you become a business, somebody else's future, you're a commodity. And I try and tell her but don't become somebody else's commodity control it for as long as you can. Only pull refinances, you can pull the money back out and reinvest into other things. Other than that, let that sucker sit there as long as you can run that out and let somebody else pay the freight.   Michael: Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. Aaron, I know you deal exclusively in residential mortgages. But can you give any insight into why the commercial markets only have 5- 7-10 year options on their mortgages, as opposed to the 30? year fixed? I mean, I have seen a 30 year fixed, but it's not the Colt 45, like it is in the residential space?   Aaron: Yes, you're right. It's it's very, very uncommon. Well, because most your commercial mortgages have to be made up by by investor capital or by banks, right. And so banks are going to take depositor capital, and they're going to create this or they're going to create their own type of security. And they're going to be able to get investors come into most investors don't want to let their money sit for 30 years. Most people don't know that when you're letting your money sit for 30 years in an inflationary environment, you're not getting your money, right, we all expect a certain rate of return on if you do any sort of hard money lending. Or if you've ever done anything to that effect, or fix and flips, you're going to calculate your return on investment annually. And I searched for a 12 plus. Right. And I don't know if you listen to Warren Buffett, Warren Buffett was talking about where, you know, some lady came to him. And, you know, she was trying to figure out how to how to invest her money, and it was a lot of money to her, but not to him. And he said, we have any credit cards? And she goes well, yeah. And he goes, we'll pay that off first. Because why would I do that? I'm not making any money. He goes, What are you paying your interest? 18 20% Because I can't make 18%. So I was I don't know how to do that. So get rid of the debt, you know, then I can show you how to make at least 12 to 13. So that's what we all are wanting is get that 12 13%.   You're not going to make that in a 30 year fixed, you just aren't. So what we've had we've we've created a way to kind of subsidized by the system. And we've got this Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. And what they did was they created the mortgage backed securities, luminary did that for anybody who watched the The Big Short. And if you haven't actually watch it. I know this is a family family show. So don't let the kids in there when you watch it, but it explains the history of the mortgage back series security, where it came from. And now what you have is now a tradable piece of paper that people keep just trading around. That's where its value is. Its value is in its trade ability in its liquid tradability as well as the fact that it the performance of the note people making the payments on time. That's what makes that's a valuable piece of paper, not to sit and hold it for 30 years. It's not valuable at all, you're losing money on that paper.   So that's why I think in the commercial world because they have not had this initiative from the from the government say we need to create housing or we need to create people's businesses, right. They didn't have that initiative. They had the initiative when you create housing, when you give people opportunity to live in a home when you give them the best opportunity and mortgage financing. So they created a 30 year fixed and a 30 year fixed has caught hold and become kind of the gold standard is now the the the Qualified Mortgage, if you will, when you get into anything else. So those where you're not really a qualified loan, you don't have safe harbor from the government or do anything outside of that. So that's about my best guess is you can't get anybody to want to put money up for that long for so cheap and lose it, and just and not make a return is really what it boils down to. They probably just rather own the building.   Michael: Yep. Yeah, that makes sense. That makes sense. Aaron, one final question before you before I let you out of here 15 year fixed versus 30 year fixed, you'll often see a pretty big spread on the interest rate. Does it ever make sense?   Aaron: We're not seeing as big a spread now as we used to. But here's where I look, it used to be a bigger spread. It's not real big right now, if there is a spread at all. So and one, two reasons we're not seeing as big a spread as we used to, we have a lot of uncertainty in the labor market right now. And as a result, that uncertainty lenders like I don't know, if I want to saddle somebody with a bigger payment, when they may have a an issue with their income in the near future. And if they do have an issue with their income, what is their ability to pay this higher payment versus a 30 year fixed, so we're gonna price it in a way that kind of leads them back to good old fashioned 30 year fixed, because our value in our portfolio is them being able to make their payment. So then when you do compare them side by side, even if it's a lower payment, you can use my, you can't use my calculator, I don't have that feature in this, we will in a future iteration, by run the numbers, when you're paying off a 15 year fixed, even at a three eighths of a percent lower interest rate or even a half, I have found you actually pay more in actual dollars. The reason being you're paying those dollars while they're worth more, rather than stretching out over time when they're worth less, because in 15 years, they're going to be worth a hell of a lot less than they are within the first 15 years.   So those who pay that off quick like that, yeah, feels good. You're getting equity in your house and all that kind of stuff. I'm of the mindset pay the 30 year fixed stretch as far as I can take the extra money I would have paid for 15 and reinvested somewhere else. And as a result of being able to do that multiple different properties and compound it that way I'll generate a lot more wealth. Because when you have when you have a home and I tell people if you're gonna buy real estate investments and get those those single families, duplex, triplex, fourplex, you have two jobs, right, you have to pick the right people to work with on the real estate side. And on the lending side to understand what you're trying to do and will guide you not try and lead you to make them money but lead you to make you money, and then pick the right asset to buy the stays reasonably rent it for the entire time you own it, you can raise rents, if you have that, who pays off the mortgage?   Michael: The tenants,   Aaron: the tenant, so if the tenant pays it off, and it's easy to do the math, guys just take 100,000, let's say it's 100? Well, you have to say it's an 80,000, or only about 100,000, our house with 20%, down, you got an $80,000 loan, you divide that up by 30, which is how many years are taken to pay it off, you'll find that it pays off. They're all they're basically giving you $2,666.67 per year, they're giving that to you, right, and that's what you're paying off the mortgage with? Well, you divide that into your investment, which is the money you invested 20,000 plus a 6000 in closing costs as 26,000 your investments grown by 10.25%, every year, do the math, you figure it out yourself. If they're paying it off, you did your job. And that's all you made was done paying off the loan, you made no more cash flow, you put no more out of your pocket, that's 10.25%, predictable, you still have the tax benefits, you still have the appreciation on the home.   So that's before all, all cash flow. So what I tell everybody is let that drag out, it doesn't matter what you do, if you do it on a 15 year note, you're more than likely have to go to your pocket, you're more than likely have to try and maintain that in other ways. And if you're out of a tenant for a month or two, that's really going to hurt your pocket, stretch that thing out. If you really feel like you want to get it paid off 10 years you can all in 15 years, you can always pay a 30 like a 15 You can never pay a 15 like a 30.   Michael: Yeah, it's very I always tell people to there you have the optionality with 30 year and that you don't have the 15. Arron: Options or everything. You know, that's all people want is to be able to make a decision for themselves. But when you pitch and you back yourself in the corner, and you're not allowed to decide for yourself, that's when you're frustrated, that's when you get angry, leave yourself out. It's a good business move to leave yourself out. The other thing of it is going back to the to the arms these other stuff, man, we're going off of hope. And hope is not a good business strategy. You need to go off of what you know and stick with what you know and control for long as you possibly can.   Michael: Love it. And this is an awesome place to put us pause until our next conversation. Until then, where can people find out more about you reach out to you if they have questions or want to reach out to you for your services?   Aaron: Best Places go to AaronChapman.com If you can't find me there because sometimes there are some some browsers don't like it you have to type in Aaron B chapman.com. Just type in Aaron Chapman a Google if you find a bearded redneck lender you found him.   Michael: Right on. Right on. Well, hey, thanks a lot, man for hanging out with me and walking us through this really kind of tumultuous time appreciate you. And we'll definitely be chatting again soon.   Aaron: It was my pleasure brother. And again, thanks for letting me under to poke some holes in in people's heads out there.   Michael: All right, everyone. That was our episode A big thank you to Aaron for coming on and dropping some really interesting Insights for us on where we're headed in the market. As always, if you enjoyed the episode, feel free to leave us a rating or review and we look forward to seeing the next one. Happy investing