Apple AI Strategy: Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley maintains Apple Overweight rating with $235 target on July 21. June quarter revenue forecast $90.72B beats consensus by 2%, services growth raised to 11.6% for 8th consecutive double-digit quarter. September quarter includes first-time $1.5B tariff costs, reducing product gross margin by 220bp. Three uncertainties block $215 breakthrough: Section 232 tariff implementation, Google TAC judicial ruling (worst case 10%+ EPS decline), AI strategy clarity. Apple's differentiated AI approach avoids search competition, focuses on OS integration with Siri-centered architecture combining proprietary LLMs and third-party white-label tech. 1.4B user base monetization potential huge with monthly ARPU only $23 far below ceiling, iPhone 5-year replacement cycle pent-up demand awaits release.