Goldman Sachs July 2025 Insights: Navigating Opportunities and Risks in China’s Sluggish Commodity Market

Goldman Sachs (Asia)’s July 20, 2025, *China Basic Materials Monthly Monitor* reveals persistent weakness in China’s commodity market, with terminal orders slightly up month-on-month but at historical lows. Infrastructure slowdown and real estate weakness drive a 7-11% year-on-year decline in cement and construction steel demand. Supply-side uncertainties persist: steel production cuts vary, cement capacity reduction lags, and lithium faces oversupply with rising permit risks. Coal sees order improvements and a 4% price rebound, showing resilience, while copper and aluminum face weak demand and high inventories. Investors should monitor macro policies, capacity adjustments, and consumption recovery, with cement and copper facing higher risks, and coal and lithium showing relative resilience.