Episode 118: Is There a Leadership Vacuum in Europe?

Who does the United States call when it wants to call Europe, especially as Germany enters a transition through early elections and France experiences political turmoil? Dr. Phyllis Berry joins The Zeitgeist to discuss which people and countries are taking on leadership in Europe and who will drive decision-making in 2025. Host Jeff Rathke, President, AGI Guest Phyllis Berry, National Intelligence Officer for Europe, National Intelligence Council Transcript Jeff Rathke Well, welcome to all of our listeners to this episode of the Zeitgeist. I’m here today with Dr.  Phyllis Berry. Phyllis, thanks for coming by. Phyllis Berry Thank you for having me. Jeff Rathke Phyllis Berry is the National intelligence Officer for Europe at the U.S. National Intelligence Council. She’s held that position since 2021. She previously was Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Europe and a bit further back was also the director for Ukraine on the U.S. National Security Council staff back during the first Russian invasion of Ukraine. Somebody who has perspectives from a variety of angles and somebody with a lot of expertise on Germany, too. Avid listeners of the podcast will remember Phyllis because she was a guest earlier this year where we talked about global trends and their impact on transatlantic relations. We’re speaking today on December 18th, two days after the Bundestag failed to pass a confidence motion in favor of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which set in motion the process toward a new election, most likely, which will happen in February, and our discussion is going to build on our earlier podcast. Of course, there’s a focus on the U.S. transition. We’re going to direct our gaze outwards at European transitions and leadership in Europe. Phyllis, my first question to you: Does Europe face a leadership vacuum? Phyllis Berry Again, thanks for having me here, Jeff. My short answer to your question is no, I don’t think it does. I think right now if we’re going to say who’s leading Europe, we would begin with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who’s just started her second term. And I think has started her second term in a strengthened position. There was a lot of innovation in what the EU did during her first term, partly because of the crises that they faced post-COVID and then the further invasion of Ukraine and then also the growing challenge from China. We saw innovations in all those areas. I think von der Leyen begins her second term in a strengthened position. She has a stronger, more cohesive leadership team with High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas the first former Prime Minister to have that position. Kallas and von der Leyen are really in sync, by the way, I think they look at both Russia and China, which wasn’t always the case with Josep Borrell. With former Portuguese Prime Minister Costa as the President of the European Council, he’s someone who has reverted to the sort of classic role of the President of the Council as being really somebody who is a coalition builder behind the scenes. And he has a reputation for helping to come to compromises. Whenever the EU and when Europe makes big decisions, and what we saw in the first term is the Commission and von der Leyen can press a new initiative and can go beyond where the consensus is at the moment, but you don’t get a big new policy without Council buy-in. Jeff Rathke Other words, the heads of state and heads of government. Phyllis Berry They have to do that. I think we also see if we’re talking about leadership change, we have a new NATO Secretary General in Mark Rutte, and we’ve already seen that Rutte and von der Leyen want to work closely together to use the benefits of both ins...