COVID-19 Chapter 4: Epidemiology

The fourth installment of our Anatomy of a Pandemic series takes a look at some of the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic. But first, we hear about the experience of Katie Burson, who was quarantined along with her family on the infamous Diamond Princess cruise ship in February 2020, when cases of COVID-19 were reported among guests. Then we review some of the disease ecology of the SARS-CoV-2 spillover event and walk through a timeline of the pandemic, which, we have to admit, is pretty chilling to hear. We are joined by Dr. Carlos del Rio (interview recorded March 20, 2020), who chats with us about updated estimates for the R0 of SARS-CoV-2, reasons for regional variation in case fatality rates, and what the deal is with the slow rollout of tests in the US. We wrap up again by going through the top five things we learned from our expert. To help you get a better idea of the topics covered in this episode, we have listed the questions below: Do we know what the R0 is for this virus? (27:44) Is there a risk for a second wave of infection in China or other places where the disease seems to be slowing down? (29:31) What are the stages of an epidemic curve and what does it mean to flatten that curve? (31:03) Are people who get infected able to be re-infected or are they immune? (32:45) What is the relative effect of social distancing vs herd immunity? (33:31) How can we convince people who can stay home to actually stay home? (34:40) What are the differences between populations that contribute to the differences in case fatality rate between China vs Italy vs South Korea, etc? (36:28) What might we see in terms of numbers of infections or how long the outbreak will last? What's the end game? (38:00) Should the measures that have been enacted in some parts of the US be happening even in places with fewer cases so far? (40:55) Is this virus likely to become well established and another 'seasonal' respiratory infection? (42:16) What's the deal with testing in the US? Why was rollout so slow at the beginning? (43:14) When should a person try to get tested if they suspect they're infected? (45:58) What has this outbreak taught us so far about our ability to respond to pandemics, and how can we do better moving forward? (46:36)