GM71: The Carry Risk Lurking in Your Portfolio ft. Kevin Coldiron

In this episode, I’m joined by Alan Dunne and Kevin Coldiron, a co-author of "The Rise of Carry", for an in-depth discussion on the recent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a broader exploration of how carry trades are becoming more embedded in both our financial decisions and everyday lives. We revisit key insights Kevin took from his book, published in 2019, and explore where things have unfolded differently than anticipated. Kevin also breaks down how the S&P 500 might be central to the current carry regime and offers thoughts on how we could assess the risk of a ‘deflation shock’ or ‘carry crash.’ We round out the conversation by considering the future of carry and the role geopolitics might play in shaping its course.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Kevin on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:02 - How carry trading has evolved since "The Rise of Carry" was published06:04 - How carry is related to the COVID-19 crisis09:12 - Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?17:02 - Was SVB a lucky escape?23:15 - S&P 500 - the essence of a carry trade?30:16 - Short-term moves are being exacerbated32:30 - VIX inversions and structural changes34:23 - What are the characteristics of a carry trade?37:58 - A change in carry = a change in the monetary system?45:09 - How could you