SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan

Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility & Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:52 - What happened this week?07:22 - Q1, Dave: What’s up with the inverted yield curve? 11:24 - Q2, Eron Musk: Cem’s opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics?14:21 - Q3, John: Cem’s forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)?16:25 - Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity18:12 - Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff?18:39 - Q6, Spek: What’s the SP500 potential bottom?22:47 - The U.S election and positive CPI numbers30:11 - Asset classes in secular inflation38:15 - Change