SI289: Kahneman, Trend Following & Cocoa ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Mark Rzepczynski joins us to remember one of the most important people within modern-day finance, author and psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, and the impact he had on our industry. We also discuss how increasing interest rates change the way investors behave and why trend following and CTAs have performed so well the past 5 years, perhaps without been given the credit the strategy deserves. We also dive into the cocoa market to discuss why it may still have a long way to go, despite racking up another 60% rise in March 2024 alone. We then move on to explain why the financial conditions index is important to understand for trend followers and why Mark believes stocks may continue to rise. Lastly, we discuss what makes trend following unique, why having trend following in your portfolio can help you achieve better performance and more diversification and much more.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:03 - Remembering Daniel Kahneman03:54 - Things are changing09:54 - Industry performance update13:32 - What the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index is missing16:23 - Let's talk about Cocoa21:55 - Trends can last longer than people expect24:44 - Is the Cocoa market a bubble?28:31 - Less markets = better performance?30:43 - Static vs. Dynamic position sizing in the Cocoa market39:13 - Understanding the financial conditions index45:09 - A euphoric environment49:47 - What makes trend following...