E74: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei Talks Scaling Laws, AI Arms Races, and Radical Abundance

Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith are joined by Dario Amodei, CEO and Co-founder of Anthropic. Dario talks about the economics of AI development, the comparative advantage of AI companies like Anthropic, AI safety, and his stance on California's SB 1047 bill. They also discuss the impacts of AI on global power dynamics, competition between the US and China, and inequality in an AI-powered world. This episode was recorded this week on Turpentine’s show Econ 102. Check it out for more like this: https://open.spotify.com/show/6q7Gn5lP8TTtBPuV1NJSGs?si=8fab4d65ddf5422a — 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: turpentinenetwork.co — MORE RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast — SPONSORS: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenberg Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign. 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Anthropic: https://www.anthropic.com/ Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ — FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @anthropicAI @turpentinemedia — TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (04:23) Dario's intellectual evolution (06:37) Is Google the Bell Labs of Al? (10:07) Economic moats in Al (12:35) Scaling hypothesis and Al's future (17:05) National security and Al (19:04) Leopold Aschenbrenner's essay (20:33) Al's impact on business models (26:30) Noah's big thesis  (29:32) Sponsors: Babbel | Brave (31:58) Al arms races? (36:17) Al's impact on labor and skill distribution (40:41) Sponsor: Squad (44:35) Future of Al and a hyperscaling world (41:42) A vision of radical abundance (49:55) Al safety and inequality (54:06) The SB 1047 debate (58:56) Rabbit alignment problem (01:01:25) Wrap