#39 - Daniel Kokotajlo - Wargames, Superintelligence & Quitting OpenAI

AI is developing at breakneck speed—but are we properly prepared for what’s coming? To explore this question Igor and I grabbed leading AI researcher and forecaster Daniel Kokotajlo for a conversation about why he left OpenAI, what's right and wrong with their company culture, and how tabletop wargames are one of the best tools we have to prepare for AGI and superintelligence in the current hyper-competitive environment. Learn how these simulations—often used by militaries—can help us better forecast the geopolitical and technical dynamics of AI development, and why so many of them end with one person taking over the world. The gang also explore the challenges of AI alignment, incentive structures and reasons for hope. And of course, lots of predictions. Win-Win!Chapters0:00 - Intro01:06 - AI Wargame & Superintelligence05:15 - Resigning from OpenAI09:15 - That Non-Disparagement Clause & His Equity12:50 - Could OpenAI's behavior be Justified?20:50 - Governance in a world with AGI23:49 - Grading Daniel's AI predictions31:37 - Hyperstition yay or nay?38:09 - AI war games46:50 - AI deception and misalignment53:27 - More AI war games1:03:16 - Common sense AI policies1:23:01 - Science Fiction1:27:12 - Rapid fire predictionsLinks : ♾️ Daniel's new Predictions : https://ai-2027.com♾️ His Historic predictions : https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like♾️ AI - Futures: https://ai-futures.org ♾️ Time Article on Daniel : https://time.com/7086285/ai-transparency-measures/ ♾️ Professional Wargaming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_wargaming ♾️ UN Pandemic Exercise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174&list=PL9-oVXQX88esnrdhaiuRdXGG7XOVYB9Xm&index=2 ♾️ Leopold Aschenbrenner’s “Situational Awareness”: https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf ♾️ Daniel’s X: https://x.com/DKokotajlo Credits♾️ Hosted by Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov♾️ Edited and Mixed by Jackson Page♾️ Produced by Luca de VicoThe Win-Win PodcastPoker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.Podcast links♾️ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWgq0OZMtwtOIyMsVM_vksqdfWcM-b68S ♾️ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/03bGVUaFZmJUmEvSHNDPdI?si=64379cc23696454f ♾️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-win-with-liv-boeree/id1724791350 ♾️ Pocketcast: https://play.pocketcasts.com/podcasts/7f708340-d17c-013b-f46e-0acc26574db2 #winwinpodcast #ai #openai